Argentina’s Energy Transition Plan 2030: Moving towards cleaner generation

Argentina’s electricity sector is at a crossroads as it prepares for an energy transition from heavy reliance on thermal energy to increasing the supply of clean energy. Argentina proposes to fulfill its international climate commitments (of reducing carbon emissions by 19 per cent by 2030 as compared to 2007 levels) through decarbonisation of the energy matrix in accordance with its technological and productive capacities.

In a bid to outline the country’s key energy goals and guidelines to achieve them, in October 2021, Argentina’s Ministry of Economy approved the ‘Guidelines for an Energy Transition Plan to 2030’, through Resolution 1036/2021. The guidelines call for structural change in the systems of supply and use of energy. The broad objective is to ensure that the future Argentine productive structure is inclusive, dynamic, stable, federal, sovereign and environmentally sustainable.

The plan entails significant investments for increasing renewable energy-based generation capacity, electricity transmission works and the gas pipeline network, among others. The 2030 plan also establishes a growth path of renewable energy in the electricity generation matrix. The plan establishes two broad scenarios for supply of electricity by 2030—one to reach a 20 per cent share of renewable energy in the generation matrix with an investment of USD9,924 million (REN 20), and the second to reach up to a 30 per cent share of renewable energy with an investment of USD13,970 million (REN 30). The REN 20 scenario implies greater requirements for oil and natural gas (which are currently the main source of fuel for the country’s thermal capacity), while the second scenario relies more on renewable energies in electricity generation. The guidelines analyse both scenarios on the sustainability of the process.

The difference between the two scenarios is explained by the additional wind installed capacity (43 per cent of the power incorporated in REN 20 and 55 per cent in REN 30) and solar photovoltaic (12 per cent for both REN 20 and REN 30). The share of electricity generation from thermal sources goes down from 61 per cent in 2019 to 40.3 per cent in the REN 20 scenario and to 30.7 per cent in the REN 30 scenario.

On the demand side, the energy scenarios for 2030 are based on the assumptions of a year-on-year growth in electricity demand of 1.7 per cent to 2.4 per cent (reaching 155 TWh or 168 TWh depending on the scenario); in natural gas demand of 1.7-3.5 per cent; and in fuel demand of 2.3 per cent.

The lines of action formulated to meet policy goals include promoting energy efficiency; the generation of clean energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG); increased gasification by implementing measures to gasify energy consumption which is today supplied by liquid fuels derived from petroleum; developing national technological capabilities; increasing the resilience of the energy system through adaptation of the high and medium voltage transmission and distribution networks; federalising energy development with active participation of the provinces in the planning and development of productive energy generation conglomerates; and formulating a national strategy for the development of hydrogen as a new energy vector.

To support the change in the generation mix, substantial investments are planned in electricity transmission ranging from USD2,875 million to USD5,575 million until 2030, depending on the scenario. Higher penetration of renewable sources of electricity generation demands greater investments, since new geographic nodes and high voltage lines are needed to allow the use of all the new energy generated in places of mass consumption. The new nodes allow interconnection of renewable capacity with the national electrical transmission system. Further, there are electric transmission works that are presented as urgent, necessary and essential for improving efficiency.

Investments in maintenance, reinforcement or expansion works of high and medium voltage lines not only cover infrastructure works for the transition, but also contribute to the decarbonisation of the matrix. This is achieved through substitution of thermal (usually diesel) generation (integrated into the grid to supply to isolated localities) with the clean electricity available in the wholesale electricity market.

A key transmission project necessary in both scenarios is the 500 kV Vivorata–Plomer–Ezeiza high voltage line, required to connect the two hydroelectric dams (Néstor Kirchner and Jorge Cepernic) currently under construction in the province of Santa Cruz. The 500 kV line, spanning 358 km, will connect Plomer on the outskirts of the capital Buenos Aires with Vivoratá to the southeast, a town close to the coastal city of Mar del Plata. Another 37-km line will connect Plomer with Ezeiza, a district in Buenos Aires. Further, a high voltage line will connect San Juan with the El Rodeo transformer station, a place of vital geographical relevance as it is intended to introduce solar photovoltaic energy to be generated in the solar parks under construction in the province of San Juan. There are also a series of necessary works in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (AMBA), which will allow greater efficiency and effectiveness between the most relevant nodes of the subsystem and the different generation plants in the area. These works are designed and planned to integrate power generation capacity that is already under construction or is in advanced stages of preparation.

Net net, the Argentine electrical interconnected system requires greater expansion, particularly of the high voltage transmission network, as the country prepares to integrate more renewable energy sources over the next decade to achieve its climate goals.

Figure 1: Planned investments in electricity transmission (USD million)