The European heavy-duty vehicle market until 2040: Analysis of decarbonization pathways has been published by the International Council on Clean Transportation. It assesses the cost-effectiveness of different CO2 reduction strategies for the heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) sector. It examines the required HDV technology market share to meet currently mandated CO2 reduction targets and the corresponding decarbonization cost. In addition, it proposes HDV CO2 reduction targets up to 2040.

The study finds that battery-electric trucks are the most cost-effective technology for meeting the HDV CO2 reduction targets. The cost-optimal technology market share to meet a 60% CO2 reduction target by 2030 involves transitioning to battery-electric technologies for most truck segments, without fully exploiting the CO2 reduction potential of diesel trucks. A CO2 reduction target of 100% by 2040 would allow only the registration of zero-emission trucks, such as battery-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell technologies. From a compliance cost perspective, battery-electric trucks will be the cheaper technology for most segments, including long-haul trucks with driving mileages up to 500 km.