This is an extract from a recent report “Offshore Renewable Energy Technology Roadmap” by Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland.
With a seabed area seven times its landmass and excellent wind and wave conditions, Ireland has access to a huge offshore renewable energy (ORE) resource to help decarbonise the economy. Indeed, Ireland’s ample scope for ORE deployment means that ORE can potentially provide far more energy than is needed by the people and businesses of Ireland, and Ireland has the potential to export significant low-carbon power to consumers across Europe.
This roadmap maps the pathway to harnessing Ireland’s ORE potential. ORE deployment has a crucial role to play in driving the decarbonisation of the Irish electricity system whilst also unlocking economic and societal benefits for Ireland. It supports a coordinated Government approach to realising the potential of each key ORE technology. This is achieved by assessing the readiness of technologies and considering both the latest relevant technology innovations, and key future innovations, for ORE technologies relevant to the Irish context.
Technology trajectories are examined through techno-economic modelling scenarios where metrics such as annual deployment rates, technology performance and costs are utilised to produce projections of technology performance in the Irish market up to 2050. Techno-economic projections provide a basis for comparing the impact of different deployment pathways which vary the mixture of technologies utilised and the volumes of offshore renewable energy being delivered. In turn, the scenario analysis elucidates the critical decision points and options mapping, for successful implementation in Ireland for offshore renewable energy targets.
By reviewing the Irish policy and regulatory landscape in addition to international best practices, the roadmap process examines the required policies, regulatory frameworks, Government supports, standards and skills for delivery, that need to be established, and when, to achieve the technology’s decarbonisation potential. It also highlights the research opportunities for Ireland and identifies the skills needed to deliver this.
This roadmap is an advisory report to inform strategic planning and policy development. It is not a statement of Government policy. This roadmap will remain under review and will be updated as required by the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC) as and when significant technology or market developments demand it. It considers generating technologies only, and does not examine the development of wider enabling technologies such as interconnection, hydrogen, efuels and other grid flexibility technologies.
Technology
This report concludes that fixed and floating offshore wind should play the dominant role in providing energy from the ocean. Fixed offshore wind is already playing a significant role in many markets, with 61 GW operating globally across about 250 projects by the start of 2024. This technology has a high degree of commercial readiness, and is considered fully bankable, enabling access to significant volumes of finance. Cost of energy has reduced significantly since early projects, with more room for further reductions as wind turbines, project sizes and the global market continue to increase in scale. Ireland has capacity to develop at least 10 GW of fixed offshore wind.
Floating offshore wind, which can be deployed in deeper water than fixed, has a lower degree of commercial readiness than fixed offshore wind, but efforts to deploy the technology at scale are gathering pace globally, with many countries setting ambitious multi-Gigawatt deployment targets. Although the cost of energy is higher than fixed offshore wind in shallower water, there is significant room for innovation to drive this down, and the technology can also benefit from many technology developments in fixed offshore wind. Ireland has capacity to deploy significant quantities of floating offshore wind in its extensive exclusive economic zone off the Atlantic coast in the west and south, where mean wind speeds are higher than in shallower areas suitable for fixed offshore wind. Constraints to deployment of floating offshore wind in Ireland are much more likely to be driven by constraints on Ireland’s capability to economically export excess generation than its capability to deploy additional turbines.
Wave energy is the next ORE technology that could impact. Current cost of energy is higher than floating offshore wind and the path to potential commercial viability is less certain, but Ireland has the potential to have a greater influence on the market than in offshore wind, hence securing a larger fraction of that market for local suppliers. This is because there is much less focus on wave energy technology, globally.
Deployment
Ireland has 25 MW of fixed offshore wind capacity installed to date in one small project of 7 turbines, installed in 2004. A further 3.1 GW has been awarded an offtake agreement in the Offshore Renewable Energy Support Scheme (ORESS) round 1 auction of 2023, and is expected to be constructed in the coming years.
Four ORE deployment scenarios to 2050 are considered in this report:
1. Decarbonising with offshore wind. This scenario sees domestic demand progress according to the National Energy Projections 2022. Offshore wind is deployed to meet Ireland’s domestic energy needs and there is little net export of energy.
2. Delivery of 37 GW ambition. In this scenario, Ireland delivers its stated ambition of 37 GW offshore wind by 2050, which sees Ireland become a significant net exporter of energy.
3. Stretch wind target. In this scenario, Ireland goes beyond its currently stated offshore wind ambition, delivering 50 GW by 2050, which sees Ireland export an even larger share of its energy.
4. Meeting 37 GW ambition with wind and wave. In this scenario, wave technology progresses sufficiently to make a significant contribution to ORE deployment targets, adding 4 GW generating capacity by 2050.
These scenarios represent indicative deployment pathways only, based upon Government ambition statements, observed deployment growth trajectories in other markets, and domestic demand projections from National Energy Projections 2022. They are not intended to represent a forecast, and pace and scale of deployment may differ in practice.
The report concludes that, due to a high level of technical and commercial readiness, there can be confidence that offshore wind can deliver the pathways set out in scenarios 1-3. There is less certainty about the wave energy contribution that turns scenario 2 into 4. The cost reduction pathway mapped for wave energy consistent with a scenario 4 pathway represents a target rather than a predicted progression. On current evidence, a cost reduction pathway for wave consistent with scenario 4 may not be possible to achieve.
Levelized cost of energy
Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for fixed offshore wind is anticipated to fall by just under one third, and for floating to fall by just over 50% for projects installed during the period 2030 to 2050. LCOEs are expected to fall on the back of high volumes of global activity and further technological development, which drive cost savings through drivers including increasing turbine size, economies of scale, improved manufacturing processes and O&M techniques. LCOE trajectories for fixed and floating offshore wind change little with increased Irish deployment, though a small saving is likely in higher deployment scenarios. Ireland’s status as a high-wage economy located in close proximity to a well-established supply chain in Europe means that local facilities will not in general offer a substantial cost saving versus non-Irish competitors.
Policy and frameworks
The Government has stated its ambition to deliver 5 GW of offshore wind by 2030, and 20 GW by 2040, with a view to delivering on a long term target of 37 GW by 2050. Ireland has frameworks in place to support the first deployment of fixed offshore wind. 3.1 GW of additional fixed offshore wind capacity was brought forward in the ORESS round 1 auction.
Ireland is moving from a developer-led approach to a plan-led approach, with project locations chosen by the Government and the establishment of The Maritime Regulatory Authority (MARA) to oversee the award of Maritime Area Consents (MACs) and other licenses for maritime activities. Many details of how this new approach will operate remain subject to consultation. It is important for Ireland to solidify frameworks soon to reduce uncertainty.
There are opportunities to strengthen Ireland’s policies and frameworks to build investor confidence and facilitate rapid deployment, based on a wealth of good practice examples from other markets. Key considerations are:
• Delivering a clear industrial policy for ORE, and methodologies for measuring and reporting on local content to maximise local economic benefit.
• Delivering clear, predictable and timely end-to-end frameworks for ORE deployment, which deliver for both investors and Irish citizens.
• Enabling timely investment in grid infrastructure, renewable hydrogen and interconnection to facilitate ambitious ORE deployment plans.
Supply chain and local economic benefit
Ireland has the opportunity to benefit significantly from the rollout of ORE. This report finds a gross value add (GVA) of between €8.8 billion and €53 billion to the Irish economy associated with domestic rollout of ORE, depending on the scenario. This equates to between 96,000 and 610,000 FTE years of employment for Irish workers. Employment benefits follow a similar trend. Local content levels in fixed and floating offshore wind and wave projects are between 15 and 25%, depending on year, technology and deployment scenario.
This means that GVA and job opportunities are driven to a large extent by volume of deployment, rather than by increased local content levels. Nevertheless, this report identifies a number of supply chain areas in which Ireland has the opportunity to capture inward investment, and therefore jobs and economic benefit. These include:
• Construction and marshalling ports (both fixed and floating).
• Tower manufacturing.
• Synthetic cable manufacturing.
With the expansion of its domestic offshore wind industry, Ireland has the potential to benefit significantly from export opportunities, especially if the above investments are captured. When export benefits are taken into account, GVA benefits to 2050 are between 16 and 36% higher than those delivered by the domestic pipeline alone. These benefits cover the export of goods and services associated with ORE deployment. They do not include the economic benefits of the export of hydrogen or electricity via interconnection, which have not been modelled. It is important to continue to evaluate the competitiveness of Irish electricity and hydrogen export within export markets, as the rollout of ORE progresses.
Key considerations in maximising local benefit are:
• Setting out ambitious long-term deployment targets.
• Establishing appropriate and targeted industrial strategy to identify and exploit investment opportunities.
• Providing investment incentives to build investor confidence and attract foreign direct investment within a competitive international context.
• Putting in place and continuing to refine clear, timely and predictable frameworks to support deployment, including for leasing, permitting, offtake and grid connection.
• Confirming the timing of future deployment opportunities, including clarifying a regular future pipeline of auctions with multi-year visibility.
• Ensuring appropriate mechanisms for community engagement and participation are built into frameworks, including, where proportionate, community benefit mechanisms to foster strong public support.
• Supporting research in areas of Irish opportunity and strength to derive a competitive advantage.
Research and research skills
Ireland already has a strong research base in ORE, in which a wide variety of Government agencies, academic institutions and research funding bodies participate. Strengthening this research ecosystem in line with ORE market growth helps ensure deployment and maximises local benefit within the supply chain.
Access the complete report here
