Key findings of the report “Indonesia’s RUPTL outlines faster growth in fossil fuel use, downgrades ambition for clean energy” by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air are:

● Indonesia’s new RUPTL 2025-2034 outlines a significant increase in power generation from coal and gas by 2034, up 40% from the 286 TWh realised in 2024. Compared to the targets in the previous RUPTL, fossil power generation is about 10% higher in 2030 (367 TWh against 333 TWh) – no sign of a near-term slowdown. 

● On generation capacity, the new plan proposes to add 16.6 GW of new fossil power through 2034, signaling a continued reliance on fossil fuels. Meanwhile, renewables targets have been downgraded from RUPTL 2021-2030, from 20.9 GW in new clean power capacity additions by 2030 to 17.0 GW. With 1.6 GW already realised since 2021, then new RUPTL lowers renewables aim by 2.3 GW.

● The clean energy targets in the new RUPTL fall even further short of what is laid out in the Just Energy Transition Partnership’s Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (JETP CIPP) released in November 2023. The RUPTL targets 10.6 GW of solar and wind by 2030 – merely 40% out of the 24.3 GW outlined in the JETP CIPP. 

● Coal and gas will dominate increases in capacity and generation through the next ten years, with heavy frontloading in the first five years, according to the new RUPTL. The JETP CIPP’s proposed gradual coal phase-out, starting in 2025, is not adopted at all. 

● The new RUPTL also increases gas power generation through 2034 by 10.3 GW, surpassing the JETP CIPP’s target by more than twice. This expansion faces a questionable and costly supply outlook, contradicting Prabowo’s vision for energy self-sufficiency and cost savings. 

● Allocation of a substantial 10.3 GW of storage – 6.0 GW from Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES) and 4.3 GW from battery, will naturally support the integration of 42.1 GW of planned renewables. However, strong emphasis on building storage, rather than smarter grid operation, risks prolonging fossil fuel dominance by increasing the costs and creating barriers to the energy transition. 

Access the report here