This study “A multi-model study to inform the United States’ 2035 NDC” by Energy Innovation brings together four U.S. modeling teams to show that an expanded set of federal and state policies beyond current policies could achieve economy-wide emissions reductions of 56-67 percent below 2005 levels by 2035. By contrast, current policies result in 34-44 percent reductions. These potential policies significantly close the gap relative to the official U.S. pledge. They also imply 2-4 times increase in renewable capacity additions, 73-100 percent reduction in electricity generation from unabated fossil fuels, and 83-100 percent share of electric vehicles in new vehicles sales.
This study presents a multi-model and bottom-up assessment of the potential emissions and sectoral implications of an expanded set of federal and non-federal policy measures beyond current policies, which may be used in efforts to inform updated climate targets and prioritize supporting actions. Although this study focuses on the US which recently announced an updated NDC, it provides a framework that countries globally can employ as they update their NDCs in the coming months.
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