Germany has set the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2045, placing its electricity transmission system at the centre of the energy transition. The expansion targets set out in the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the Offshore Wind Energy Act (WindSeeG) define the pathway for renewable deployment across all planning scenarios. By 2030, installed capacity is expected to reach 215 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV), 115 GW of onshore wind and 30 GW of offshore wind (OSW). By 2045, these figures rise to 400 GW of photovoltaics, 160 GW of onshore wind, and 70 GW of OSW. In parallel, the Kohleverstromungsbeendigungsgesetz (KVBG) or Coal-fired Power Plant Phase-Out Act mandates the complete phase-out of coal-fired generation by 2038 at the latest, with a preferred target of 2035.

Meeting these targets requires more than rapid renewables’ deployment. It also necessitates a comprehensive expansion and optimisation of the electricity transmission grid to transport large volumes of power efficiently from generation hubs, particularly in northern Germany and offshore, to industrial and population centres in the south and west.

Grid planning is coordinated by Germany’s four transmission system operators (TSOs)—50Hertz Transmission GmbH, Amprion GmbH, TenneT Germany and TransnetBW—through the Network Development Plan (Netzentwicklungsplan, NEP). Updated every two years, the NEP serves as the central planning instrument for grid expansion and reinforcement, guiding investment decisions and project approvals, while ensuring alignment with national energy policy objectives and system requirements.

The 2025 NEP, for the planning horizons 2037 and 2045, reflects a shift from its earlier versions. The first draft, which was published in December 2025, is based on a new scenario framework approved by the Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur, BNetzA) in April 2025. For the first time, electricity and gas/hydrogen transmission networks are planned in an integrated manner, using consistent assumptions regarding power plant locations, electrolyser capacities, storage requirements, hydrogen demand and consumption patterns.

The 2025 NEP’s first draft considers three main scenario paths for the target years 2037 and 2045, differing primarily in their degree of electrification, electricity demand, the role of hydrogen and the pace of renewable expansion:

  • Scenario A assumes slower electrification, higher hydrogen imports and a more moderate and delayed expansion of renewables.
  • Scenario B closely follows Germany’s legally mandated renewable energy expansion targets and aligns with the system development strategy underpinning Germany’s commitment to climate neutrality.
  • Scenario C represents a particularly ambitious pathway with very high electricity consumption and the largest installed generation capacity.

The 2025 NEP includes new Trend Scenario for 2032, which intends to reflect the continuation of currently observable developments. This scenario supports assessments of reactive power compensation needs and forms a basis for the 2027 system stability report.

Key takeaways

Cautious demand forecast

The NEP projects significant growth in electricity consumption, driven by the electrification of transport, heating and industrial processes, as well as the rising energy demand of digital technologies and data centres. However, consumption projections under Scenario A in the 2025 NEP are notably lower than that in the 2023 NEP, reflecting more cautious assumptions about the pace of electrification.

Reduced need for new HVDC lines

A central feature of the 2025 NEP is a strategic shift away from extensive physical grid expansion toward greater efficiency, optimisation and cost control.

Compared with the 2023 NEP, revised assumptions, such as slower growth in electricity demand, optimised offshore grid planning and a reassessment of investment costs relative to congestion management savings, result in a lower demand for domestic high-voltage direct current (HVDC) connections.

While the 2023 NEP identified the need for five additional HVDC links (DC40, DC40plus, DC41, DC42 and DC42plus), the 2025 draft no longer considers DC40, DC40plus and DC41 essential. Across all scenarios, however, the DC42 link, connecting Schleswig-Holstein with Baden-Württemberg over nearly 700 km, remains necessary. The extension of the DC42 link, known as DC42plus, is retained in all scenarios except one. This line will add a further 2 GW of capacity. For cost-efficiency reasons, both are proposed as overhead lines.

Offshore grid development and optimisation

OSW plays a critical role in all scenarios. The offshore starting grid in the North and the Baltic Seas comprises a total capacity of 25.9 GW (24.6 GW in the North Sea and 1.3 GW in the Baltic Sea) and a route length of approximately 4,500 km (4,000 km in the North Sea and 500 km in the Baltic Sea). By comparison, just under 9.6 GW of offshore capacity is currently connected to the German transmission grid.

For the first time, the NEP introduces explicit offshore optimisation measures that prioritise the actual energy yield over nominal capacity. Spatial adjustments in the North Sea, improved utilisation of grid connection points, and stronger European interconnection reduce the overall need for offshore grid infrastructure. These measures could deliver substantial cost savings, while still enabling the rapid expansion of OSW.

Greater storage capacity

The 2025 NEP marks a shift toward greater reliance on storage to stabilise the grid by increasing its expectations for large-scale energy storage. The 2025 NEP anticipates installing large storage capacities between 41 and 94 GW by 2045, which were estimated at 43-55 GW in the earlier plan. This adjustment reflects evolving market dynamics and highlights the growing role of batteries and other storage technologies in maintaining the flexibility and reliability of the electricity system.

To support the acceleration of large-scale energy storage deployment, the German government plans to amend laws to exempt large-scale batteries from grid connection rules originally designed for large power generation plants. This change aims to simplify the process of connecting batteries to the grid by recognising them as storage tools rather than power generators. The new system is expected to be faster and more transparent than the current first-come, first-served approach and help clear the massive backlog of grid connection requests. However, the industry cautions that new rules must be defined quickly to prevent a legal gap that could impact current battery projects.

Projected investments

The NEP estimates a total grid investment requirement of EUR360 billion–EUR390 billion by 2045, with Scenario A offering potential savings of up to EUR80 billion, due to more efficient offshore and onshore planning. Offshore grid investments are projected at EUR100.5 billion–EUR113.5 billion by 2037 and EUR153.3 billion–EUR171.3 billion by 2045. Onshore investments, including the start network, range from EUR182.3billion–EUR186.4 billion by 2037 and EUR208.8 billion–EUR215.1 billion by 2045.

Conclusion

Overall, the NEP 2037/2045 (2025) marks a decisive shift in Germany’s grid planning philosophy – away from maximal physical expansion and toward targeted reinforcement, system optimisation and realistic demand assumptions. Market shortages of technical components and specialised services have led to significant cost increases. The new NDP, therefore, places stronger emphasis on striking a balance between investment expenditures, the residual need for congestion management and overall grid security, an essential lever for improving.