Estonia’s Energy Transition: Paper
Estonia’s energy transition, driven by the rapid decline of oil shale generation, faces a trilemma between security, affordability, and decarbonization. Using a structural general-equilibrium framework, this paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of Estonia’s new energy plan, combined with deeper European electricity market integration, EU mitigation policies, the impact of AI-related datacenters and broader electrification pressures. Results show that expanding domestic supply and market integration lowers long-term prices by one-third, increases GDP, reduces import dependence, and supports emissions reduction.
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