The extract is based on the survey results from the report “Tax Stability for Energy Dominance” published by the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE).
To evaluate the potential for clean energy market activity absent significant policy changes, ACORE conducted surveys of clean energy sector investors and developers in December 2024. Survey respondents included top executives from the largest clean energy investors and project sponsors in America, representing over $15 billion in capital investments. Respondents provided information about their investment or development plans under a scenario where the federal tax credits for clean energy are maintained, and also under a scenario where the tax credits are repealed or modified.
The survey results illustrate how clean energy investors and developers would continue significantly accelerating activity in the sector over the next three years, with more than half of the respondents reporting plans to increase their activity by more than 10% compared to 2024 levels, absent changes to the tax credits or other policy interventions. Respondents remained concerned about existing market risks, such as insufficient transmission capacity, delays and costs associated with interconnection queues, inflation and input costs, and supply chain constraints.
However, the majority of respondents would continue to see clean energy as an attractive asset class and would not reduce their risk profiles in an environment with limited policy changes. Most respondents also expected a variety of project financing sources to increase, in particular standalone transferability and hybrid tax equity and transferability structures. However, policy changes that repeal or devalue the energy tax credits significantly threaten to reduce sector investments, along with continued regulatory changes and the implementation of additional tariffs affecting the clean energy supply chain.
Market outlook and risk profile
The survey findings show that with no changes to the energy tax credits, all investors and 90% of developers would plan to increase or maintain their U.S. clean energy sector activity in 2025 compared to 2024. Notably, 50% of the companies that invest $500 million or more annually would intend to increase their investment by 10% or more, translating to billions of dollars in private-sector investments. As momentum in the sector increases, investors are increasingly comfortable with wind, solar, and battery projects, while emerging technologies like enhanced geothermal and advanced nuclear show great potential for future activity.
These results are particularly true for small developers. Among those developers with less than $100 million in U.S. clean energy revenues, 91% would plan to increase their development activity by at least 5%, if current tax credit policies remain in place.
As domestic clean energy manufacturing continues to scale, investors would also plan to continue to invest in projects generating Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits. Over the next three years, 56% of surveyed investors planned to invest in projects earning these credits if policies are not changed.
Furthermore, 58% of investors anticipated the attractiveness of the U.S. market to increase for clean energy investment in comparison to other leading countries over the next three years, assuming no changes are made to the energy tax credits, while only 10% expected U.S. competitiveness to decrease. Compared to other asset classes in their portfolios, 47% of investors expected clean energy investment to increase in attractiveness over the next three years, while only 11% expected it to moderately decrease.
Beyond changes to the energy tax credits, developers and investors face a host of other market risks to their portfolios. Both developers and investors agreed on the biggest risks, with insufficient transmission capability and interconnection queue delays and costs topping the concerns. The combined results of both the developer and investor surveys are presented in Table 1.
For most respondents, modifications to the energy tax credits stood above all other risks. When the prospect of policy changes to the energy tax credits was removed, 90% of investors reported anticipating no change or an increase to their risk profiles (Figure 28). Among developers surveyed, 80% of respondents estimated no change or an increase to their risk profiles (Figure 29). In written responses, both developers and investors also raised the impacts that other policy changes could have on their portfolios. In particular, uncertainty from administrative and regulatory changes create a significant amount of uncertainty for businesses, and new tariffs would impact clean energy input costs and supply chains.
When asked specifically about the prospect of tax credit uncertainty, 84% of investors and 73% of developers reported that they would expect to decrease their activity. Among companies with over $1 billion in investments, 80% responded they would significantly or moderately decrease their clean energy investment plans, potentially translating to the loss of tens of billions of dollars in investment. In interviews, investors and developers conveyed the importance of policy certainty around energy tax credits and transferability. Several interviewees discussed the runway that project financing needs and said that repealing tax credits would have a chilling effect on investments. Respondents’ concerns extended to changes to technology, neutral and other tax credits, the bonus credits, and transferability and direct pay. Significant curtailment or modification of the existing tax credit regime could significantly impact project economics.
Project Finance Outlook
Developers and investors provided their outlooks for the project financing landscape, also in a scenario with no changes to the tax credits. Notably, just two years after transferability was established as a method for tax credit monetization, it has become a core part of the market, which is evidenced by standalone transferability and hybrid transactions i.e., tax equity plus transferability both among the top four sources of financing expected by developers and investors over the next three years.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, most investors and developers anticipated the availability of hybrid and standalone transferability would moderately or significantly increase relative to 2024. Three quarters of developers also reported that transferability had a positive impact on their ability to finance projects in 2024. Another component of clean energy project financing is the ability to secure offtake. The importance characterized by this report was echoed strongly by the surveyed market participants. Nearly 90% of respondents characterized offtake agreements as moderately or significantly important in project financing. Looking at 2025, 40% of developers anticipate that it will be more difficult in 2025 to secure these power purchase agreements (PPAs) than it was in 2024, while 50% anticipate no change in difficulty.
Asset Classes and Regions
Investors ranked utility-scale solar and energy storage as the two most attractive sectors in clean energy over the next three years. For emerging technologies like advanced geothermal, advanced nuclear, CCUS, and clean hydrogen, investors expressed a wider variety of views on their attractiveness, with some investors more bullish than others on how specific technologies will evolve over the next few years. Both investors and developers ranked PJM, MISO, and ERCOT as the most attractive markets for developing clean energy projects over the next three years.
Investors and developers continue to place importance on placing projects in energy communities or low-middle income (LMI) communities. Eighty percent of developers consider developing in these communities to be of at least moderate importance, whereas 67% of investors consider investing in projects in these communities of at least moderate importance in their decision making.
Conclusion
The U.S. faces an extraordinary energy challenge and opportunity, with rocketing electricity demand growth and increasing extreme weather events straining the grid to levels not seen in decades. Results from ACORE’s market sentiment surveys for investors and developers show that clean energy could draw more investment in 2025 and lead to the deployment of more generation than ever before, but repeal of key energy tax credits and transferability threaten to slow activity. Both large and small companies stressed the importance of long-term certainty for enabling the success of clean energy projects.
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