This report “Decarbonisation in Bulgaria: Fifth in cuts, first in carbon intensity” published by SeeNext  reviews long-term GHG trends, highlighting where Bulgaria is advancing, where gaps persist compared to EU progress and what available funding is supporting decarbonisation. Some of the key findings include:

-According to Bulgaria’s latest update to its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) submitted in 2025, under the WEM (With Existing Measures) scenario, Bulgaria’s net GHG emissions are projected to decline by 46% by 2030 compared to 2022, or 73% compared to 1988, reaching 26.19 MtCO2-eq. 

-By 2050, emissions are projected to fall further to 17.73 MtCO2- eq, representing an 82% reduction from 1988 levels. Under the WAM (With Additional Measures) scenario, net GHG emissions are projected to decrease by 82% by 2030 compared to 1988, achieving net zero by 2050. 

-Between 1990 and 2023, Bulgaria achieved a 55% reduction in total emissions, ranking fifth in overall progress across the EU. However, on a per capita basis, the country achieved a 39% reduction, placing it 15th and highlighting the impact of its demographic decline. 

-At the company level, 79% of Bulgarian firms reported having taken measures to reduce GHG emissions, compared to 91% across the EU, according to the EIB’s latest investment survey. The energy sector accounts for most of the country’s emissions, although significant progress has been made due to a recent boom in solar capacity additions, which translated to a surge in low-carbon production. 

-As a result, GHG emissions from fuel combustion in energy industries shrank by 56.8% in 2023 compared to 1990 levels. The most significant long-term GHG emission reduction occurred in fuel combustion in manufacturing and construction, where emissions fell by 78.4%, reflecting both energy restructuring and industrial contraction. 

-Despite undeniable progress, Bulgaria remains one of the EU’s most carbon-intensive economies, at 967.6 g of CO2- equivalent (gCO2-eq) per EUR of gross value added (GVA) in 2023, over four times the EU average of 224.1 g CO2-eq per EUR. 

-Bulgaria’s carbon footprint rendered it a net exporter of emissions between 2010 and 2023, as evidenced by a 4 MtCO2-eq net balance between production and consumption inventories. Roughly 51% of its GHG footprint originated domestically, while the remaining 49% resulted from imports. 

Access the report here