The report “Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance” published by EMBER highlights that the first ten days following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East have been a painful reminder of the EU’s fossil reliance. The rise in fossil prices increased the EU’s fossil import bill, which could have a knock-on effect on electricity prices.
● The cost of gas-fired power across Europe has increased by more than 50% due to the gas price spike since February 28.
● This rise adds twice as much to electricity costs as the cost of carbon due to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). At current gas prices, the carbon cost constitutes at most around 10% of the final EU household electricity bill, less than the average rate of VAT (18%).
● Countries that rely less on gas power are less exposed to electricity price increases. In Spain, gas influenced the price of electricity in only 15% of hours in 2026 so far, compared to 89% in Italy. Average power prices in Spain remain below the cost of gas-fired power, and lower than other EU countries with large gas power fleets.
● The EU paid an additional €2.5bn for fossil fuel imports in the first 10 days of the conflict.
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