The report titled “EU Solar Market Update: 2026 Mid-Year Analysis” published by Solar Power Europe highlights that, the first half of 2026 has shown a more resilient EU solar market than anticipated, but not an improvement in its underlying fundamentals. The renewed fossil fuel crisis has strengthened the economic and energy-security case for solar and supported demand in several markets, helping compensate for weakening support schemes and continued regulatory and grid constraints. Against this backdrop, preliminary country data indicate that the EU solar market grew slightly in H1. At the same time, the EU’s solar fleet once again demonstrated its strategic value, shielding consumers and businesses from fossil fuel price spikes and supporting Europe’s power system during a summer marked by extreme weather events and heightened energy-security concerns.
The remainder of 2026 will show how far this resilience can be sustained. While the outlook is considerably stronger than expected at the beginning of the year, rooftop weakness in several mature markets and growing pressure from curtailment, negative prices and declining solar capture rates continue to weigh on the sector. Currently the market is still expected to decline slightly in 2026, although preliminary installation data and the delayed impact of investment decisions triggered by the fossil fuel crisis leave room for a stronger year-end outcome.
Beyond the final 2026 installation figure, however, the more important question is whether Europe can create the conditions for the next phase of solar growth. As solar supplies an increasing share of Europe’s electricity and reduces exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets, faster deployment of storage, grids and flexible demand is becoming critical. Without these measures – and more stable policy and regulatory frameworks – the resilience demonstrated in 2026 will be difficult to translate into the sustained growth required to meet the 2030 solar targets. Assessment therefore remains unchanged: under current market and policy conditions, the EU is not on track to meet its 2030 solar target.
Access the full report here