This is an extract from a recent report “Trends and projections in Europe 2024” by The European Environment Agency.

Preliminary estimates for 2023 are based on the approximated GHG inventories submitted by Member States and indicate that EU-wide GHG emissions have decreased by 8% compared to 2022 within the scope of the European Climate Law. This significant reduction over the course of a year is largely driven by decreases in emissions from the power sector, with additional reductions in the industry and buildings sectors. In absolute terms, the overall 8% decrease represents a reduction of 270 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e), more than four times the average annual decrease reported since 2005. When compared to the 2030 target, the emissions reductions are substantial. Comparing 2022 emissions with the 2030 target, an average annual emissions reduction of 141Mt is required. The reduction achieved in 2023 is nearly twice as high. This marks the largest year-on-year drop in GHG emissions in recent decades, except for 2020, when emissions were influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The 2023 reduction continues the trend of decreasing emissions observed since 2018. The overall year-on-year reduction translates to an estimated net GHG emissions level for 2023 that is 37% below the 1990 level. By comparison, the level achieved in 2022 was 31% below the 1990 level. With this, the EU continues its sharp decline in GHG emissions, marking an important step towards achieving a net 55% reduction by 2030. To close the remaining gap by 2030, it is essential that emissions reductions continue at a swift pace over the coming years. Member States’ GHG projections submitted in 2023 and updated in 2024 indicate that additional efforts must be made.

Based on existing measures alone, the projections forecast a reduction in net GHG emissions by 2030 to a level 43% below 1990 levels. However, 22 Member States have also submitted additional projections that consider additional planned but not-yet-launched measures. When these additional measures are included, net GHG emissions in 2030 are projected to reach 49% below 1990 levels in the EU (domestic GHGs are projected to reduce by 51%). Additional measures outlined by Member States in their NECPs, which will be evaluated at the end of the year, and the continued implementation of the European Fit for 55 package are crucial strategies to bridge the gap with the 55% target. A preliminary analysis of the 14 final updated NECPs submitted at the time of drafting this report by the European Commission points to a reduction of this identified gap to the EU’s 2030 target of 55%.

In 2023, renewable energy constituted an estimated 24.1% share of the EU’s total energy mix, marking an increase of 1 percentage point from 2022. This growth was primarily driven by a significant expansion of renewable electricity production and further amplified by a reduction in non-renewable energy consumption. In absolute terms, the consumption of renewable energy rose from 227Mtoe in 2022 to an estimated 233Mtoe in 2023, representing an increase of 3%. This anticipated growth in 2023 continued the positive trend observed in 2022, following a decline in 2021 when energy consumption outpaced renewable energy production. Despite this progress, considerable efforts are required to meet the 2030 target of an EU renewable energy share of 42.5%. The gap between the 23% achieved in 2022 and the 2030 target necessitates an annual increase of 2.4 percentage points, three times more than the average annual growth observed between 2005 and 2022. Strong growth in specific technologies, particularly solar, indicate that this target is achievable.

However, active national policies and ambitious national objectives are crucial to sustaining the development of renewable energy. The EU’s commitment to energy efficiency has led to a significant reduction in energy consumption since 2005, with primary energy use decreasing by 16% and final energy use by 10% as of 2022. Estimates for 2023 suggest a further reduction, with primary energy consumption expected to be 19% lower and final energy consumption 11% lower compared to 2005 levels. However, to meet the 2030 targets, the average annual reduction in primary energy consumption must more than double between now and 2030 compared to the average rates seen since 2005, while the reduction in final energy needs to be more than three times faster.

EU-wide developments in emissions and energy

The significant emissions reductions estimated for 2023 continue a long-term European trend of decreasing GHG emissions over the past decades, with an average reduction of 1% per year from 1990 to 2022. The pace of this reduction has accelerated over time, with the average annual reduction more than doubling between the periods 1990-2005 and 2005-2022. The majority of these GHG emissions reductions can be attributed to a decrease in the use of energy-related fossil fuels in the EU. The sharp reduction in GHG emissions associated with solid fossil fuels, which dropped by 60%, accounted for more than half of the total GHG emissions reductions in the EU since 1990. Additionally, GHG emissions from the oil sector have significantly declined during this period. While the increased use of natural gas between 1990 and 2022 has partially offset some of these emissions reductions, overall emissions related to fossil fuel energy have consistently decreased. This trend has been driven by substantial improvements in energy efficiency over the years, resulting in lower absolute energy consumption and an increasing share of renewable energy in the EU’s energy mix. GHG emissions not related to energy have also decreased significantly in the EU.

The 2030 climate target aligns with the broader EU goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. To refine the path towards this goal, the Commission has assessed various options for establishing an additional interim reduction target for 2040 (EC, 2024c). Based on a comprehensive impact assessment, a Commission communication (EC, 2024c) recommended a 90% reduction in the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 relative to 1990 levels. This recommendation reflects the minimum target level for 2040 recommended by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, 2023). This approach provides the greatest certainty for reaching climate neutrality by 2050, while also enhancing predictability and minimising the total greenhouse gas budget emitted within the EU. Achieving a 90% emissions reduction will require maintaining the rapid pace of emissions reductions necessary to meet the 2030 target through to 2040 and allow the EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. According to the impact assessment, reaching these emissions reductions will build on the continuation and scaling up of efforts such as the electrification of energy demand, the deployment of renewable energy sources and improvements in energy efficiency. Additionally, lifestyle changes can contribute to achieving the necessary emissions reductions at a lower cost and most likely with less environmental disturbances. However, these factors may take a considerable time to materialise.

The current target share of renewable sources in the EU’s gross final energy consumption in 2030 is to reach at least 42.5% and to aim at reaching 45%. Each Member State contributes to this target via its updated NECP, for which the final versions were due by the end of June 2024. The EU-wide total renewable energy share on gross final energy consumption (RES-Total) grew from 10.2% in 2005 to 23.0% in 2022. This is an average annual linear growth of 0.8 percentage points. Preliminary estimates indicate the RES-Total share for 2023 was 24.1%. Electricity is not the biggest sector when it comes to total energy consumption, but it is the sector in which renewable energy has progressed most. The electricity sector (RES-E) accounted both for the largest share and the largest average annual growth from 2005 to 2022, with the RES-E share growing from 16.4% in 2005 to 41.2% in 2022. Preliminary estimates indicate that RES-E stood at 44.3% in 2023. The EU′s renewable energy share in heating and cooling (RES-HC) grew from 12.4% in 2005 to 24.9% in 2022, averaging a 0.7 percentage points increase per year. In absolute terms, total renewable energy use grew by 115% since 2005. The largest growth during that period was the 24-fold growth of solar power, followed by heat pumps (which grew 12-fold) and wind power 6-fold. None of these sources had made up more than 5% of the EU RES share in 2005, while biomass stood at 64% then. Biomass now stands at 55%, while the share of wind grew from 5% in 2005 to 16% in 2022. It is the second largest source of renewable energy as of today. Solar power and heat pumps made up 9% and 7% of renewable energy sources in 2022.

Progress to national emission targets

The ESR sets binding national emissions reduction targets to reduce GHG emissions by 2030 from domestic transport (excluding CO2 emissions from aviation), buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste. The national 2030 reduction targets are expressed as a percentage change from 2005 emission levels and range from -10% to -50%. The 2030 national emissions reduction targets are translated into AEAs for each year in the period 2021-2030 based on a defined trajectory comprising binding annual emission limits for each Member State. Member States can use several flexibilities to comply with these targets. Emission targets for 2030 have been made more stringent with the ESR revision in 2023, with a simultaneous decrease in AEAs for the years 2023-2029. Iceland and Norway have agreed to implement the ESR and  commit to binding 2030 emissions reductions targets. The ESR emissions of Member States are calculated annually based on the GHG inventory, while the final compliance calculations of ESR emissions for 2021-2025 will only be determined in 2027 based on a comprehensive ESR review. Until then, the ESR emissions of these years can shift with updates of countries′ annual GHG inventories. In the inventory compiled in 2024, a small change to the 2021-ESR emissions was observed.

At the EU level, the difference between ESR emissions and AEAs for 2021 increased by 12MtCO2e compared with last year′s inventory, while for Austria and Denmark, a small AEA deficit switched to a marginal surplus.In 2022, emissions in the effort sharing sectors were lower than Member States’ AEAs for all except eight Member States (Croatia, Cyprus, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta and Romania). Member States can use various flexibilities to reduce differences between AEA and ESR emissions. This can include the banking of emissions by a country for its own future use. The three Member States that had a deficit in 2021 according to the latest GHG inventory (Cyprus, Ireland and Italy) also show a deficit in 2022. For Croatia, the 2022 deficit is higher than the surplus of 2021, leading to a net deficit across both years. These Member States could not reduce their deficits in 2022 via the banking of surplus AEAs from 2021. For compliance, these Member States will either have to reduce their emissions in the following years to a higher extent than their AEA or have to use the borrowing flexibility, use Land Use Mitigation Units from the LULUCF Regulation if available, or purchase AEAs from other Member States. Compliance for each year from 2021-2025 will take place after the comprehensive review of ESR emissions in 2027.

The Renewable Energy Directive raised the European target of a renewable energy share in 2030 from 32% to a minimum share of 42.5%, with the aim of reaching 45%. To achieve this objective, all EU Member States determine in their NECPs their individual contribution to the EU’s overall 2030 renewable target, expressed as the share of gross final energy consumption. To do so, they have to put forward a value for 2030 (the contribution) and should set an indicative trajectory until then. Draft updated NECPs were submitted in 2023, final updated NECPs were due at the end of June 2024 and these will be assessed by the European Commission. The development of renewable energy in Europe is not progressing evenly in all Member States. The EU′s overall total renewable energy shares of 23% in 2022 results from shares ranging from 13% in Ireland and Malta to 66% in Sweden. To evaluate the progress made in 2022, this year’s RES shares can be compared with the interim target outlined in the Governance Regulation (EU, 2018). This sets an interim 2022 trajectory reference point, requiring that 18% of the distance between the 2020 and 2030 contribution was achieved that year.

Taking into account the previous EU RES target of 32% — which was still valid in 2022 — the EU as a whole reached the 2022 interim target, as did most Member States. However, for Austria, Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia and Spain, the 2022 RES level was below the reference point. For three Member States (Austria, France and Ireland), the 2022 RES share was below their binding 2020 baseline. Preliminary estimates for 2023 indicate that the total RES shares ranged from 12% in Luxembourg to 64% in Sweden. Twenty-one Member States saw an increase in their renewable energy shares between 2022 and 2023. The largest increase is estimated for Spain, which increased its RES share by three percentage points from 2022 to 2023. In contrast, the RES shares of Croatia, Luxembourg and Sweden are expected to have decreased by two percentage points compared to 2022. Member States’ 2030 RES share contributions — according to their draft updated NECPs submitted in 2023— range from 11.5% (Malta) to 65% (Sweden). Overall, the share of renewable energy in the final energy consumption could reach between 38.6% and 39.3% in 2030 at EU-level, according to the EU-wide assessment of the draft updated NECPs. As a result, Member States need to raise their contributions in their final updated NECPs (to be submitted in 2024) to collectively achieve the 2030 binding EU renewable energy target.

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