Key highlights of the report “Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C” published by Resources for the Future are:
-The world will exceed 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2050. Despite some success in reducing the trajectory of global emissions, achieving the 2015 Paris Agreement “stretch goal” of 1.5°C is no longer plausible. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will be extremely challenging and requires additional policy effort.
-Electricity demand is surging. Projections for power consumption around the world have been revised upward in recent years, incorporating rising demand from data centers and the electrification of end-use sectors such as transportation. Although these trends vary across regions, they add up to a rapidly electrifying world.
-World coal demand has grown faster than expected. Although previous years’ projections have envisioned a decline of coal, surging demand for electricity in key markets has supported the sector. In the United States, federal policymakers are taking aggressive measures to support coal. Those efforts are likely to slow—but unlikely to reverse—coal’s decline in the United States.
-Energy demand diverges across global regions. Demand for coal, oil, and natural gas generally declines in the “West” (Americas, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and Europe). In the “East” (Africa, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East), coal demand falls while demand for oil and gas grows under many scenarios. These differences are especially apparent in the transportation sector.
-Wind and solar lead future energy growth. Under most scenarios, wind and solar grow to account for more than half of global electricity generation by 2050. These sources have increased from a negligible part of the power mix in 2000 to nearly 15 percent in 2024. Wind and solar will continue to rise, but maintaining the rapid growth rates of recent years will likely require sustained policy support.
Access the report here