This is an extract from a recent report “Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025” published by EMBER. This extract specifically focuses on the developments in China and India.
Just four economies — China, India, the EU and the US — constituted nearly two-thirds of global electricity demand and power sector CO2 emissions in H1-2025. Fossil fuel generation fell in China and India but rose in the EU and the US, with China leading clean energy growth.
China, India, the EU and the US accounted for 63% of global electricity demand and 64% of CO2 emissions in the first half of 2025. Development in these countries therefore has a major influence on the global power sector. In H1-2025, fossil fuel generation and related emissions fell in China and India – a reversal of trends seen in the first half of 2024, as clean sources in both countries grew faster than electricity demand.
Meanwhile, fossil generation and emissions rose in the US as clean generation did not keep pace with demand growth. In the EU, solar grew strongly, but falls in wind, hydro and bioenergy led to an increase in gas generation, and to a lesser extent coal, causing a slight rise in emissions. China remained the clear frontrunner in clean energy growth, accounting for 55% of the global rise in solar generation and 82% of the rise in wind generation.
China
China met all its demand growth with clean electricity generation in the first half of 2025. This led to a fall in its fossil fuel generation and emissions. China also accounted for most of the global growth in low-carbon electricity: 55% of solar, 82% of wind and 73% of nuclear.
China drives global solar and wind growth
China’s progress in energy transition has been impressive, as shown in Ember’s China Energy Transition Review 2025. In H1-2025, China’s electricity demand rose by 198 TWh (+4.2%), lower than the 326 TWh (+7.5%) increase in the same period in 2024. This moderation was partly due to a more measured pace of industrial demand growth. The increase in demand was outpaced by solar, wind and nuclear generation. Solar output grew by 168 TWh (+43%) compared to the same period last year, well above the global average of 31% for this period, and accounted for 85% of the increase in China’s electricity growth and 55% of global growth in solar. Solar’s share of China’s power mix rose to 11.5%, up from 8.4% in H1-2024. Wind generation increased by 79 TWh (+16%), more than double the global average of 7.7%, accounting for 40% of China’s electricity generation growth and 82% of global growth. Wind’s share of the country’s power mix grew from 11% to 12%.
Among low-carbon sources, nuclear generation grew by 24 TWh (+11%), contributing 73% to global nuclear growth. Meanwhile, hydro declined by 11 TWh (-1.9%).
Fossil fuels fall as solar and wind surge
Growth in clean electricity, particularly solar and wind, drove down coal and gas use in the first half of 2025. Coal generation fell by 56 TWh (-2%), reducing its share from 59% to 56%, while gas generation dropped by 2.7 TWh (-2%) compared to the same period last year. Other fossil fuels fell by 0.1 TWh (-1.8%). As a result, China’s power sector emissions fell by 46 MtCO2 (-1.7%). Looking at the past 12 months, fossil generation shows signs of plateauing. However, it remains unclear when fossil fuels will definitely peak in China, partly because weather can play a significant role in year-to-year variations in demand and generation.
India
India accounted for 6.2% of global electricity demand and 9.1% of global CO2 emissions in the first half of 2025. At the same time, growth in clean sources was more than three times bigger than demand growth, with record solar and wind installations pushing coal generation and emissions down. Fewer heatwaves also contributed to lower electricity demand.
Clean sources outpaced electricity demand amid fewer heatwaves
Electricity demand increased by just 12 TWh (+1.3%) in H1-2025, compared with a rise of 75 TWh (+9%) in the same period last year. This was the lowest absolute growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. This slowdown reflected more measured industrial growth, as well as milder weather that reduced cooling demand. Air conditioning is estimated to account for about 50 GW, or 20% of India’s maximum power load, hence having a significant impact on demand. Ember estimates that if temperatures had been similar to H1-2024, particularly in April, May and June, demand would have increased by about 3.5% (+32 TWh). Even in that scenario, clean sources, led by solar and wind, would have exceeded demand growth, rising by 40 TWh (+20%) in H1-2025 and pushing coal generation down. Demand growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, likely driving higher coal generation.
Solar and wind rose at a record pace
Solar and wind both grew at a record pace in the first half of 2025. Solar was a standout, with generation rising by a record of 17 TWh (+25%) compared to 8 TWh (+13%) in the same period last year. This growth lifted its share of the electricity mix to 9.2%, up from 7.4% in H1-2024. Wind generation also increased strongly, by a record addition of 11 TWh (+29%), against just 0.5 TWh (+1.3%) last year. Its share of the mix rose to 5.1% from 4%. The rise in solar generation was on its own bigger than the growth in demand, while the rises in both wind and hydro were both virtually equivalent to demand growth.
Other low-carbon sources also grew. Nuclear generation rose by 3.5 TWh (+14%) compared to 2.6 TWh (+12%) recorded last year. Hydro rebounded with an increase of 9.6 TWh (+17%), a sharp turnaround from the 4.9 TWh (-7.8%) decline in H1 2024. The expansion of clean energy reduced fossil fuel use. Coal generation fell by 22 TWh (-3.1%), while gas generation declined by 7.1 TWh (-34%). As a result, power sector emissions fell by 24 MtCO2 (-3.6%) compared with the same period last year.
Access the report here
