This Energy Transition Norway report describes the energy future of Norway through to 2050. This approach yields a consistent and energy-balanced result, as Norway is part of the global energy system, and the country’s energy supply and demand are affected by what happens elsewhere. Similarly, what happens in Norway can affect other countries. The analysis produces a single ‘best-estimate’ forecast of Norway’s energy future, given expected economic, policy and technology developments and associated costs, as well as some behavioural adjustments. The forecast also provides a basis for assessing whether Norway is likely to meet its energy and climate-related targets.
The 2023 edition of the Energy Transition Norway 2050 reconfirms that Norway is not on track to meet Paris Agreement targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite cross-political support for 55% and 100% GHG reductions by 2030 and 2050, respectively, Norway is heading for 27% less in 2030 and 80% in 2050. Norway can maintain its significant market share in energy supply to Europe, but through a new export mix of electricity alongside hydrogen (initially blue and then green) and ammonia as energy carriers. The decarbonization effort in Norway and globally is an enormous business opportunity for the Norwegian industry. Norway’s urgent need to build a significant amount of new renewable power requires an attractive financial framework and streamlined concessions and permitting.
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