This is an extract from a report “How renewables, energy savings and flexibility can replace nuclear in Europe” by The European Environmental Bureau. This extract focuses on three EU countries with installed nuclear capacities and examines the detailed PAC trajectories in these countries: France, Belgium, and Spain.

France

France is by far the country with the largest nuclear capacity in the EU. Its fleet of 56 reactors – managed by state-owned Électricité de France (EDF) – accounts for more than half of the total nuclear generation capacity currently installed in EU countries. In 2023, 65% of French electricity (320 TWh) was provided by its nuclear reactors, the highest share of nuclear generation in the EU. This output was enough to meet around 17% of France’s final energy consumption. Even for France, the PAC scenario results in a decarbonisation path consistent with a complete phase-out of nuclear power. According to the PAC scenario, the last nuclear reactors in France could be shut down in the early 2040s, with production reduced significantly as early as 2035. In the PAC decarbonisation pathway, French nuclear power production decreases to 173 TWh in 2035, 39 TWh in 2040, and is completely phased out immediately thereafter. Figure below helps to understand the projected composition of France’s final energy consumption by type of energy source in the PAC scenario. 

To achieve this, the scale of renewable energy penetration on the supply side and the scale of energy savings on the demand side are key: 

(a) Renewables uptake 

In the PAC scenario, while electrification progresses rapidly throughout the 2020-2030 period, the French electricity mix becomes increasingly dominated by solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind technologies. Wind capacity in France increases to 27 GW onshore and 30 GW offshore by 2030, reaching a combined output of 167 TWh and accounting for around 29% of the electricity production and 14% of final energy consumption. Solar PV capacity increases from 17 GW in 2022 to 83 GW of generation capacity in 2030, reaching an output of 90 TWh which covers roughly 15% of the electricity production and 8% of final consumption. Combined, such a deployment of wind and solar technologies could satisfy around 45% of France’s electricity mix and 21% of its final energy consumption in 2030, as opposed to the projected 41% and 17% represented by nuclear’s 239 TWh output. 

In the 2030-2040 period, the share of renewables in the energy mix increases even more significantly. The increase is still driven by wind and solar electricity, combined with limited amounts of hydrogen and bioenergy from waste. By 2040, renewables will account for 93% of electricity production and 97% of final energy consumption in France. Over the same period, nuclear energy production decreases more than fivefold to 39 TWh, i.e. 7% of electricity generation, meeting 3.6% of final energy consumption. It is between 2030 and 2040 that we see the largest reduction in nuclear energy in the PAC scenario. Even in France, to meet future energy needs while phasing out fossil fuels and moving towards carbon neutrality, a strong increase in renewable energy deployment is necessary, even in combination with high rates of electrification of end-use, transport and industrial processes. This is also independent of the production of nuclear energy, which becomes redundant in the PAC scenario and allows for a complete phase-out in the early 2040s.

(b) Energy demand reduction 

Focusing on added renewables capacity is just one side of the coin: the reduction in energy demand is equally important to make nuclear generation redundant. In the PAC scenario, the energy demand in France is sharply reduced, mainly in the period 2020-2040. When considering transport, buildings, industrial combustion, and agriculture, PAC foresees a reduction of France’s final energy consumption of roughly 50%.

In the PAC scenario, the buildings sector is responsible for almost 50% of the total reduction in final energy consumption in the 2020-2040 period. Thanks to increasing renovation rates (3% per year from 2030 onwards) and the uptake of renewable heating appliances and renewable district heating networks, the energy consumption of the French building stock will be reduced by 371 TWh (from 702 TWh in 2020 to 330 TWh in 2040). With its 40% share, transport determines another significant share of energy savings in France. Shifts in transport modes – towards cycling, rail – and the uptake of more efficient and cleaner vehicles, as well as increased car-sharing practices, result in an absolute reduction of French transport’s energy demand of 308 TWh (from 425 TWh in 2020, down to 116 TWh in 2040). In the PAC scenario, the total reduction in final energy consumption in France between 2020 and 2040 (-755 TWh) is more than double the required reduction in nuclear power output (-320 TWh).

Belgium 

Belgium is somewhat of an emblematic case in the current EU debate on the possibility of the extension of nuclear reactors which are close to retirement. Belgium was one of the pioneers of nuclear power in the EU. Linked to Belgium’s colonial past was its access to large uranium reserves discovered in the 1910s in what was then the Belgian Congo. Through its colony, Belgium became one of the main suppliers of uranium to the United States. It was this commercial relationship that gave Belgium access to nuclear technology for energy production. In 2003, however, Belgian lawmakers adopted a phase-out plan proposed in 1999 by the Verhofstadt I Government: no new power plants will be built, and existing reactors will be decommissioned after 40 years of operation. 

(a) Renewables uptake 

In the PAC scenario, the growth of renewable energy in Belgium is driven by a significant increase in wind power (both onshore and offshore) and solar PV (especially rooftop PV). By 2030, wind capacity will increase to 4.8 GW onshore and 4.5 GW offshore. This compares to around 3 GW and 2.5 GW for offshore and onshore respectively in 2022. In 2030, wind farms will be able to produce around 27 TWh of electricity, covering 34% of electricity demand. Over the same period, solar PV capacity, driven by building-integrated and rooftop PV in urban and industrial areas, will triple from around 7 GW to 21 GW between 2022 and 2030, capable of meeting around 27% of gross electricity production. Other renewable energy sources, such as geothermal and biomethane and biowaste-fired CHP plants, will contribute a further 5.5 TWh of electricity in 2030.

Taken together, renewables will account for 68% of Belgium’s electricity mix and 71% of the country’s final energy consumption in 2030. In the same year, the remaining nuclear capacity will produce around 12 TWh of electricity, contributing 11% to the electricity mix and 3% to final energy consumption. By 2040, renewable energy capacity will reach around 6.7 GW of onshore and offshore wind and almost 36 GW of solar PV. With 39 TWh from wind, 35 TWh from solar PV and 6 TWh from other sources, renewables can meet almost 99% of Belgium’s electricity demand and 96% of the country’s final energy consumption in 2040. Over the same period, the output of nuclear will be reduced from around 12 TWh in 2030 to zero, most likely by 2032-2033, and the remaining reactors will be decommissioned.

(b) Energy demand reduction 

In the PAC scenario, Belgium’s energy demand is sharply reduced between 2020 and 2040. In this period, the PAC scenario foresees a reduction in Belgium’s final energy consumption of about 50% (from 375 TWh in 2020 to 191 TWh in 2040). In the PAC scenario, the transport sector is responsible for about 36% of the total reduction of final energy consumption in Belgium in the period 2020-2040. Factors such as the electrification of several modes of transport, reduced demand for passenger air travel, combined with strong growth in cycling (both urban and non-urban) and rail transport, reduce the energy consumption of the transport sector by 76% (from 88 TWh in 2020 to 21 TWh in 2040). Increased energy efficiency of most appliances (computers, refrigerators, dishwashers), a high penetration rate of electric heat pumps (reaching 58% in the residential sector in 2040) and a moderate but significant penetration (21%) of district heating solutions for space heating in residential buildings. 

Overall, in the PAC scenario, the energy demand of the buildings sector in Belgium is reduced by about 52% (from 151 TWh in 2020 to 73 TWh in 2040) and accounts for 42% of the total demand reduction between 2020 and 2040. Industry accounts for 19% of the total reduction of final energy consumption in Belgium between 2020 and 2040. The recycling rates of secondary aluminium and steel reach about 78% and 61% respectively in 2040, while the recycling of plastics is increasingly carried out by chemical rather than mechanical recycling. These are the main factors behind the 35 TWh of energy saved by the industrial sector in Belgium in 2040 compared to 2020. In the PAC scenario, the total reduction in final energy consumption in Belgium between 2020 and 2040 (-184 TWh) is more than five times higher than the required reduction in nuclear power production (-32 TWh).

Spain

In the PAC scenario, Spain has one of the smoothest paths to a complete and early nuclear phaseout, largely completed by 2025 and reaching zero in 2030. This is broadly in line with the Spanish government’s recently announced nuclear phase-out plan; barring earlier retirements, Spain’s current nuclear power plants will be shut down from 2027 to 2035.

(a) Renewables uptake 

In the PAC scenario, Spain deploys significant new onshore wind and solar PV capacity. By 2030, solar PV capacity in Spain will increase to around 82 GW. At the same time, onshore wind capacity in Spain will reach 66 GW, capable of producing 141 TWh per year. While onshore wind and solar PV will meet around 86% of Spain’s electricity demand and contribute to around 40% of the country’s final energy consumption, other renewable energy sources will also play a role in decarbonising Spain’s electricity and energy mix. In 2030, offshore wind, hydro, geothermal, and concentrated solar power installations will produce around 39 TWh, providing a further 12% of Spain’s electricity demand and 5% of the country’s final energy consumption. In the PAC scenario, the contribution of renewables to the energy mix continues to grow significantly over the period 2020-2040, reaching almost 518 TWh in 2040. This completely dwarfs the – 55 TWh decrease in nuclear power generation between 2022 (historical data) and 2030, which is the time horizon for the complete phase-out of nuclear capacity in Spain.

(b) Energy demand reduction 

In the PAC scenario, Spain’s final energy consumption is significantly reduced, especially by 2040. By then, the PAC scenario foresees a reduction in Spain’s final energy consumption of more than 55% (from 838 TWh in 2020 to 370 TWh in 2040). In the PAC scenario, the transport sector accounts for almost half (49.1%) of the total reduction in final energy consumption in Spain over the period 2020-2040. Factors such as the electrification of several modes of transport, including vessels (both domestic maritime and inland waterways), combined with higher car and bus occupancy rates, reduce the energy consumption of the transport sector (excluding international aviation and maritime bunkers) by about 229 TWh (from 281 TWh in 2020 to 52 TWh in 2040). Increased energy efficiency of most appliances (computers, refrigerators, dishwashers), a high penetration rate of electric heat pumps (reaching 75% in the residential segment in 2040) and reduced hot water consumption in commercial buildings are among the drivers of the decreasing energy demand of buildings in Spain. 

Overall, the energy demand of the buildings sector is reduced by about 154 TWh between 2020 and 2040 (from 312 TWh in 2020 to 157 TWh in 2040). Industrial production in Spain, which accounts for 17% of the total reduction in final energy consumption, is another important driver of the huge energy savings in the PAC scenario. In the PAC scenario, the total reduction in final energy consumption in Spain between 2020 and 2035 (-467 TWh) is more than eight times higher than the required reduction in nuclear power output (-55 TWh). 

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