This is an extract from the recent EU Solar Market Outlook 2025-2030 by SolarPower Europe and highlights the top 10 European solar power markets of 2025.

After a period of unprecedented growth, the EU solar market is poised to take a small step back in 2025. The bloc is set to install 65.1 GW of new solar PV capacity, marking the first annual decrease in market size in a decade. Following years of extraordinary expansion, +38% in 2021, +48% in 2022, and +51% in 2023, growth had already slowed sharply in 2024, when installations rose only 2.8% to 65.6 GW. In 2025, the market is expected to shrink by 0.7%, confirming that the EU solar boom is under pressure. Several factors underpin this slowdown. The effect of the energy price crisis that drove record deployment between 2021 and 2023 has somewhat faded – at least in the eyes of EU citizens. Between 2021 and 2022, natural gas prices (excluding taxes and levies) had surged by 77% and electricity prices by 76%. By the first half of 2025 these prices dropped by 16% and 12% respectively, however, gas prices are still 80% higher today than they were in the first half of 2021. Additionally, higher taxes and levies on electricity, compared to fossil combustion, have watered down price signals. As the sense of urgency that had pushed citizens, companies and governments toward solar decreased, so did the national support schemes within key solar markets. 

On the utility-scale side, the pipeline of renewable auctions, an expanding corporate PPA market, and the completion of pre-contracted merchant projects have, until now, partly offset the rooftop slump. However, growth in this segment remains constrained by grid congestion, a quickly growing number of negative power price events resulting in record-low solar capture prices, and lingering policy uncertainty, which together weigh on project bankability. Compared to last year’s report forecast of 70 GW, the 2025 outcome falls short by 7%, mainly due to a steeper-than-expected decline in residential and commercial rooftop demand across several leading markets. This underlines the high elasticity of distributed solar to shifts in economic and policy conditions. The contraction should be seen as a worrying warning sign for policymakers: failure to swiftly address the root causes of this market decline threatens to derail progress toward the EU 2030 solar target and seriously risks undermining EU decarbonisation, competitiveness, and energy security ambitions.

Top 10 solar PV markets 2025

Following the exceptional growth peak recorded in 2023, when all top 10 EU solar markets showed a net increase in installed capacity, the landscape in 2024 and 2025 shows a clear normalisation. In 2024, four of the ten leading markets already posted lower additions than in the previous year, and this trend has intensified in 2025, with five of the top 10 countries installing less capacity than in 2024. Beyond the number of declining markets, the magnitude of changes has also progressively softened: the double-digit GW surges seen in 2023 give way to more moderate increases or outright contractions in both 2024 and 2025. Today, the EU market has, more than ever, shifted from expansion across all segments toward country- and segments pecific growth.

Germany remains Europe’s largest solar market by a wide margin, but the drivers behind its growth have changed significantly over the past three years. The exceptional market increase in 2023 (7.8 GW more than the year before) was primarily driven by rapid expansion of the residential and commercial rooftop market. Since then, rooftop additions have slowed substantially except for very small plug-in do-it-yourself installations that have boomed. Instead, growth in both 2024 and 2025 has been carried by utility-scale solar, where Germany’s strengthened auction framework and supportive policy environment have kept the deployment growing strong. In 2025, however, the declining rooftop segment nearly offsets the utility-scale gains, resulting in only marginal net growth compared to 2024.

In Spain, the slight contraction observed in 2024 (-0.9 GW) reflects a temporary cooling in the rooftop and industrial segments, which had been expanding rapidly in previous years. By 2025, these declines are partially reversed (+0.4 GW) driven by growth in the utility-scale segment. 

A notable dynamic in 2025 is the reshuffling between France (+1.0 GW) and Italy (-1.0 GW), with France overtaking Italy as the third largest EU solar market. France’s growth is supported above all by a strong expansion of the commercial segment, complemented by a steadily rising utility-scale pipeline that has boosted volumes in both 2024 and 2025. Italy, meanwhile, shows the opposite pattern: while its utility-scale market has more than doubled since 2023, rooftop additions have weakened sharply. The phaseout of the Superbonus support scheme has significantly reduced residential and commercial momentum, while the largest utility-scale projects have been struggling with grid congestion, administrative procedures and local opposition challenges in 2025.

In Poland, total additions have declined for a second consecutive year, driven mainly by a slowdown in the residential and small-commercial segments. The surge in household PV that characterised earlier years driven by the net-metering support scheme has normalised as the scheme was phased out. Today, the ‘My Electricity’ support scheme is backed by record funding, but the rooftop segment is stabilising at roughly half of its 2023 level. As a result, the overall market has edged down, even as the country remains solidly in the top 5.

The steepest contraction among major markets occurs in the Netherlands (-1.1 GW), a rooftop-heavy market strongly exposed to the phase-out of the net-metering scheme. Residential additions in 2025 fall to less than one-third of their 2023 level, with policy uncertainty and a weaker business case already dampening demand well ahead of the scheme’s official end in 2027. This decline moves the Netherlands from 4th place in 2023 to 8th in 2025, representing the largest ranking drop within the top 10.

Beyond the dynamics in the largest EU markets, the shifts occurring among the mid-sized markets also reshape the composition of the top 10 in 2025. Two developments stand out most clearly. First is the continued rise of Romania, which entered the top 10 for the first time in 2024 and consolidated its position this year with another strong expansion. The country adds 2.5 GW in 2025, up from 1.7 GW in 2024, marking a 45% year-on-year increase – the fastest growth rate among all of 2025’s top 10 markets. Romania’s relatively stable rooftop and rapidly developing utility scale market, driven by a strong policy framework, fast permitting times, soaring BESS deployment, an emerging PPA market and CfD tenders. This allowed the market to overtake Greece, which faces a decline in its rooftop segment as the net-metering scheme is phased out and the net-billing scheme faces implementation delays. In Portugal, the utility-scale market falls below the GW scale due to delays in developing pipeline projects. Both Greece and Portugal have a large project pipeline, though many of these projects could be considered speculative and are awaiting a better investment environment. 

The second change is the entrance of Bulgaria into the top 10 for the first time. With 1.7 GW of new capacity in 2025, Bulgaria grows by nearly 40% compared to 2024, replacing Austria, whose annual additions have steadily declined since the 2023 peak and no longer meet the threshold for the top 10 in 2025. Bulgaria’s acceleration is driven by a sudden and temporary expansion in the utility scale segment tied to deadlines under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), while Austria’s decline is caused by a gradual slowdown in the rooftop segment. In 2025, the Austrian market faced a change in rooftop solar support mechanisms, before the budget for solar support schemes was cut across the board.

Taken together, the shifts observed across the 2025 ranking underline that the core of Europe’s solar markets remains anchored in the same leading countries, even if their relative growth patterns differ from year to year, while the midsized markets are reshaping the edges of the top 10. Newer and previously smaller markets such as Romania and Bulgaria entering the list, reflecting broader diversification of solar growth across the EU. 

EU Solar Market Prospects 2026-2030

Figure 26 highlights the ten EU markets expected to add the most solar capacity between 2026 and 2030 in the Medium Scenario. Together, these top ten are projected to account for around 80% of all new EU installations by 2030, with the top three alone representing nearly half of total additions. While growth is gradually spreading into smaller markets, the core of EU solar expansion remains highly concentrated. A second trend visible in this ranking is how market dynamics shift over time. While Germany has been Europe’s largest solar market for most of solar history, its lead expands further by 2030, widening the gap with Italy and Spain under all three scenarios.

Italy is set to overtake Spain in net additions over the coming 5 years, although, with the current volume of solar capacity operating in Spain, it is unlikely that Italy will have more total installations by 2030. Several emerging markets also accelerate: Romania surpasses the Netherlands to become the sixth-largest source of new capacity, while Portugal and Greece are expected to retain their leading market positions. Ireland, though not in the top 10 markets in 2025, is expected to contribute significantly over 2026-2030. Overall, and despite a degree of diversification across Member States registered over the past few years, the data show a European Union where most new solar capacity continues to come from a relatively small group of countries, highlighting both the leadership role of major markets, and the need for broader participation to meet EU-wide targets.

Figure 32 displays each Member State’s most recent NECP target, compared to the current installed capacity and to the Medium Scenario forecast to 2030 based on expected market evolution. The chart also illustrates the size of individual countries’ contributions to the aggregate NECP target. Compared to last year’s analysis, most of the largest EU markets have decreased their 2030 cumulative capacity projections by a significant margin. Due to this worsened outlook, three out of the top 10 markets by total PV capacity in 2030 – Germany, France, and Austria – are no longer expected to reach their national solar target on time under current policy conditions, unless corrective action is taken. Last year, there were only two.

The 2030 capacity forecast for Germany has decreased again compared to last year, considering increased high political uncertainty, system flexibility challenges, and worsening grid bottlenecks in this mature market. Anticipating a total solar PV operating fleet of 196 GW by 2030, Germany will miss its 215 GW solar target by 9%. A new entry in this list despite a strong performance in 2025, France’s solar market outlook for 2030 has been revised downwards significantly. With reduced ambition and decreased support for solar deployment, as well as overall political turmoil and growing opposition to renewables expansion, uncertainty in this market is expected to slow down growth. France is expected to miss its 64.8 GW (54 GWAC) 2030 solar target by 8.5 GW or 13%. Although previously within reach, now expect Austria’s 21 GW solar target for 2030 to be missed by 12%, with the contraction in the rooftop market leading to a reduced market outlook in the coming years.18 Denmark will miss its ambitious 24 GW solar target by 46%. Portugal, Sweden and Ireland are also expected to miss their 2030 solar targets by 10%, 4%, and 13% respectively.

Access the report here