The ICF report “Electricity demand growth: How will the grid keep pace?” reveals how regional capacity, transmission constraints, generation buildout, and demand-side resources will shape where growth can actually happen. U.S. electricity demand is growing fast, but the real question is more specific: where can new load connect, how quickly, and at what cost?
As per the report, total U.S. electricity demand will increase 21% by 2030 and 39% by 2035 from 2026 levels. But the real story is regional. Electricity demand is rising in every region of the U.S., but not at the same pace. Regions with the strongest data center activity, industrial expansion, and electrification are expected to see the greatest increases in both total electricity demand and peak demand through 2035. For instance, in PJM, total electricity demand is expected to rise 43% by 2035. By comparison, in NYISO, total demand is expected to rise 14.3% over the same period.
Further, the U.S. has limited capacity to absorb this growth. ICF analysis finds only about 26 GW of excess generating capacity above minimum reliability needs, equal to roughly 3% of total U.S. capacity. Moreover, a large generation buildout is underway, but timing and scale are critical. ICF forecasts 445 GW of U.S. generation capacity additions from 2026 through 2030, yet only 68 GW is expected in 2026.
Access the report here