Zero-Emission Bus and Truck Market in US

This is an extract from the report “Zero-Emission Bus and Truck Market in The United States: A 2022–2023 Update” prepared by Yihao Xie, International Council On Clean Transportation.

Overview

Registrations of new zero-emission heavy duty vehicles (ZE-HDVs) in the United States rose from 200 in 2021 to 1,600 in 2023. Over the same 2-year period, total new HDV registrations grew from around 490,000 to 520,000, or 5.8%. The share of ZE-HDVs in all HDV registrations remained low but rose from less than 0.10% in 2021 to 0.16% in 2022, and then to 0.30% in 2023. The heavy-duty truck segment contributed the most to the increase in the number of new ZE-HDV registrations. Despite this recent growth, the United States is still far behind the markets in China and the European Union: In 2023, there were 11,000 new ZE-HDVs sold in the 27 EU Member States and more than 110,000 sold in China.

In 2022 and 2023, medium- and heavy duty trucks were 96% of the total internal combustion engine (ICE) HDV market in the United States. In the total ZE-HDV market, trucks are not as large a share and were 54% of the market in 2022 and 63% in 2023. That there are more buses in the ZE-HDV market shows that zeroemission trucks are in an earlier stage of development. While the registrations data accessed for this analysis showed that all new ZE-HDVs registered in 2022 and 2023 were battery electric, sales data obtained from separate sources shows that sales of hydrogen fuel-cell trucks occurred in 2023. That these are not in the registration data accessed could reflect the limits of collection methods and scope. Another explanation is that sales data are not directly comparable with registration data; vehicles produced and sold are not always immediately registered and put in operation.

Buses

Registrations of zero-emission buses grew from around 140 in 2021 to 360 in 2022, and then to around 590 in 2023. In 2023, zero-emission buses were 2.8% of all new bus registrations in the United States—the highest market penetration among HDV segments. The two largest manufacturer groups of ICE-powered buses in the United States are Traton and Daimler, and these two groups are also becoming dominant players in the zero-emission bus market. Traton subsidiary Navistar manufactures battery electric school buses under the IC Bus brand and Daimler subsidiary Thomas Built manufactures battery electric Saf-T-Liner C2 Jouley school buses. Registrations of electric school buses have propelled Traton and Daimler past all-electric bus manufacturers Lion Electric and BYD, which took third and fourth place, respectively, in the U.S. zero-emission bus market in both 2022 and 2023.

New zero-emission buses sold in the United States in 2022 and 2023 have a mix of lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistries. BYD relies solely on LFP, while Blue Bird/Lion Electric uses NMC batteries. Proterra uses a mix of NMC and lithium titanate oxide, a less common battery chemistry. Battery capacities range from just above 100 kWh for short-distance shuttle buses to over 400 kWh for urban transit bus models.

Trucks

From 2021 to 2022, new zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations grew from 33 to 190, and new zero-emission medium-duty truck registrations surged from the single digits to 240. From 2022 to 2023, zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations quadrupled to 760 and zero-emission medium-duty truck registrations remained about the same as in 2022. As a result of the recent market growth, zero-emission heavy duty trucks were 0.28% of all new heavy-duty truck registrations and zero-emission medium-duty trucks were 0.10% of all new medium-duty truck registrations in 2023. The composition of classes in the ICE truck market remained largely the same between 2022 and 2023, but the makeup of the zero-emission market changed. Class 8 tractor trucks and Class 4–6 rigid trucks had the highest share of both ICE and zero-emission registrations. More than 70% of zero-emission trucks registered in 2023 were Class 8 tractors. Class 7 and Class 8 rigid trucks together were 18% (2022) and 19% (2023) of ICE truck registrations but only 8% (2022) and 9% (2023) of zero emission truck registrations. There were no zero-emission Class 7 tractor trucks registered in 2022 or 2023.

More than 90% of zero-emission medium-duty truck registrations in 2022 had no manufacturer information listed in the data accessed; ICE industry leaders Ford, Daimler, and Traton, which owns Navistar, were shown in this limited data to have low or nonexistent zero-emission registration shares. In 2023, more than half of registrations had no manufacturer information. Nonetheless, Daimler, Traton, and Paccar collectively accounted for 46% of the zero-emission medium-duty truck market, and all-electric manufacturer Lion Electric was responsible for 3% of registrations.

Different manufacturers chose to use LFP and NMC batteries in their vehicles, with capacity ranging from under 100 kWh to 175 kWh.

There was no manufacturer information available in the data for 38% of zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations in 2022 and 19% of the registrations in 2023. Nikola began production and delivery of its Class 8 Tre tractor trucks in 2022, and registrations with missing manufacturer information may be attributable to this company. Nonetheless, in the heavy duty truck market, the four largest ICE manufacturer groups in the data were Daimler, Paccar, Volvo Trucks, and Traton, and they collectively represented more than 95% of the market in both 2022 and 2023. The top three manufacturer groups were also active in the zero-emission market. In 2022, 37% of zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations were Volvo Trucks products, 10% were Daimler, and 5% were Paccar. In 2023, the share of Daimler products increased to 42% of all zero emission heavy-duty truck registrations; Volvo Trucks was in second place with 19%, and Paccar had the third-largest share with 6%. Tesla entered the zero-emission heavy duty truck market with its Semi model, which accounted for 9% of registrations in 2022. Chinese manufacturer BYD had 9% registrations in 2023, outperforming both Paccar and Tesla.

There are a wide range of battery sizes in zero-emission heavy-duty trucks. Smaller batteries (100 kWh) were mostly found in hydrogen fuel cell truck models like Nikola’s hydrogen Tre model and Hyundai’s Xcient, as the primary energy for fuel-cell electric trucks comes from onboard hydrogen tanks. The largest-capacity batteries were found in battery electric long-haul tractor trucks like Nikola’s Tre model and Tesla’s Semi. Between the two extremes are drayage and regional-haul truck models, which use a mix of LFP and NMC battery chemistries.