This is an extract from a recent report “Bavaria’s wind potential can deliver more than its transition” prepared by EMBER.

Despite being Germany’s largest state, Bavaria is currently lagging in terms of wind power development, with only 2.6 GW of installed capacity. However, Bavaria has the potential to increase this capacity sixfold and achieve its renewable energy goals. This report examines the untapped potential of onshore wind in Bavaria and how increased deployment could strengthen the region’s energy sovereignty and reduce the costs of continued high dependence on imported gas.

Bavaria aims to reach net zero by 2040

This goal is enshrined in the Bavarian climate law. Yet, in the past 20 years, the Bavarian state government has hampered the energy transition. A selection of politicians has vocally lobbied against the deployment of windmills and enhanced grid infrastructure. The 10H rule, introduced in 2014, established that the minimum distance between a wind turbine and the nearest settlement must be ten times the height of the turbine. Modern large wind turbines can reach heights of 200 metres. Consequently, permitting for onshore wind projects has almost completely come to a standstill. Despite boasting one of the largest solar and hydro power capacities, Germany’s largest state has one of the lowest wind power capacities in the country, compared to its size, at 2.6 GW.

The Bavarian government has set a target to double the amount of electricity generated from renewables from 40 TWh to 78 TWh by 2030. This goal was recently reaffirmed in the coalition agreement between the two conservative governing parties, the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Freien Wähler (FW) in October 2023. While the plans include an increase in solar power from 13 TWh to 40 TWh they only stipulate the installation of 1,000 new wind turbines. The numbers clearly indicate that the renewables target will not be reached through solar alone. A significant but achievable rise in wind power ambition is the solution. 

Some policy progress has been made. While the 10H rule remains in place despite recent calls to abolish it, the restrictions were relaxed in November 2022 and in select areas the required distance between turbines and residential properties has been reduced to 1000 metres. In priority areas, this has been dropped further to 800m since June 2023 and some local mayors across party-lines are calling for this to be introduced across the region.

Bavaria has enough wind potential to deliver on renewables targets.

Traditionally, there have been assertions that the wind does not blow enough in Bavaria to justify installing wind turbines. However, analysis shows that this can be challenged. Data from the Joint Research Centre shows that, even under the extremely high restrictions of the 10H rule, Bavaria could double its existing installed wind capacity from 2.6 GW to 5.2 GW and that this would increase annual wind electricity generation from 4 TWh to 8 TWh. This demonstrates that more wind power could be delivered even with these strict conditions.

If the distance restrictions were reduced to 1000 metres across the region, existing wind capacity could be more than tripled to 9 GW – increasing annual wind power generation to 14 TWh (+10 TWh). Ember calculations estimate that if the call to reduce the distance to 800 metres was adopted across the state, then the potential capacity could jump almost sixfold to 15 GW (22 TWh). This is an increase of 18 TWh compared to Bavaria’s current wind generation.

Germany generated 126 TWh of its electricity from wind in 2022, 100 TWh of this was onshore. So with 22 TWh of wind, Bavaria would account for 17% of Germany’s current total wind power and 22% of onshore wind. The 2030 Bavarian renewable electricity target of 78 TWh requires an increase of 38 TWh from current renewable generation levels. With 27 TWh of this expected to come from solar, that leaves a gap of 11 TWh. Ember analysis shows that this could predominantly (~90%) be met by onshore wind if restrictions were relaxed to 1000 metres across the region and that this could even be surpassed if an 800 metre distance rule was introduced. 

Increased wind generation would bring gas import savings and energy sovereignty

Bavaria has the second highest regional gas consumption in Germany at 105 TWh and produces 14 TWh (18%) of its electricity from fossil gas. If the distance restrictions were reduced to 800 metres, sufficient wind capacity could be installed to more than replace this 14 TWh of gas generation. As a result, Bavaria would be significantly less dependent on imported gas. Instead, this electricity demand could be met through local renewable sources – achieving greater energy security and sovereignty.

This additional wind power would also cut financial risks and consumer costs through reduced exposure to expensive and volatile imported gas prices. Bavaria could slash its current annual gas consumption by at least 28 TWh (27%). This would equate to yearly savings of €1.3 billion based on expected 2024 gas prices alone. If we see gas prices return to 2022 levels then the annual gas cost savings surge to €3.4 billion.

Access the complete report here