Key takeaways from the report “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Clean Hydrogen” by the US Department of Energy are:
-The United States is on track to reach 7-9 MMTpa in operational capacity by 2030. Investment in clean hydrogen has nearly doubled in the last year—not including the approximately $50 billion of capital associated with DOE H2 Hubs—shrinking the amount of additional capital investment required to achieve liftoff by 30-60%, to $30-150 billion from the $85-215 billion gap
-Estimated production costs for clean hydrogen have increased since March 2023, with disproportionately larger increases for electrolysis than for low-carbon reformation. That said, cost reductions are expected for both pathways over the next few years. Furthermore, policies like the 45V production tax credit can help accelerate the timeline to make clean hydrogen competitive with unabated fossil-based alternatives. At the time of this analysis, 45V final rulemaking is underway
-Despite cost increases, markets for clean hydrogen are growing. Low-carbon reformation projects can target large, industrial offtakers in ammonia and refining. Electrolysis projects can target end markets with higher willingness to pay or markets with additional, stackable incentives— such as transportation and clean fuels in jurisdictions with low carbon fuel standards or subsidized export markets.
-Emerging pathways like methane pyrolysis might accelerate liftoff given their potential to produce clean hydrogen at lower costs and/or at lower emissions levels
Access the report here
