Energy Transition, a Balanced Look at Global Approaches: EDP Renewables' Miguel Fonseca - REGlobal

Miguel Fonseca, CEO Asia Pacific, EDP Renewables

Lately I’ve been feeling a growing frustration with all the noise surrounding energy transition, renewables, and carbon neutrality. So, I decided to put some thoughts together — not with the intention of writing a scientific paper or a deeply analytical piece, but simply to share my personal take on what I’m seeing and sensing when it comes these key topics– reflections, readings, and perspectives from where I stand.

The global energy transition is a multifaceted challenge, often muddled by competing narratives and oversimplified assumptions. Climate change demands action, and major economic blocs—US, China, and Europe—are responding with strategies shaped by their unique economic, geopolitical, and technological contexts. Too often, public discourse conflates these factors, obscuring the practical realities at play. Let’s cut through the noise, ground the conversation in facts, and explore what these approaches reveal about building a sustainable future.

1. Climate Change: (not) accounting for the full cost

Climate change is no longer a distant threat—it’s a present reality with tangible costs. Floods, wildfires, and extreme heatwaves are disrupting economies and communities worldwide, yet these impacts are rarely reflected in traditional energy pricing. Consider industries like tobacco or alcohol: their market prices don’t account for the healthcare burdens they impose on society. Similarly, fossil fuels—oil, gas, and coal—carry hidden externalities like pollution, medical costs, and lost productivity that distort their perceived affordability. Until carbon pricing or other mechanisms fully capture these costs, comparisons between energy sources remain incomplete, skewing the debate in favor of fossil fuels – even in a mature and encompassing carbon market scenario, estimates put carbon costs at ¼ to ½ of its real cost.

2. National agendas vs. Energy transition > US: both ways, cheap gas while integrating renewables

The US is sometimes criticized for its measured pace in transitioning to renewables, with its reliance on fossil fuels drawing scrutiny. However, this overlooks a key economic advantage: energy independence fueled by the shale revolution. In early 2025, US natural gas prices were around $2-3 per MMBtu, that equates to ca. $14.50 per barrel of oil equivalent (leveraged “net” wisdom for that: $2.50 × 5.8 MMBtu/barrel = $14.50) far below global oil benchmarks ($60-80). This cost advantage reduces the urgency for the US to shift aggressively away from gas.

Yet, gas alone isn’t sufficient. Aging coal plants are retiring, and electricity demand – fueled by AI, data centers, and electrification of heat/others – is surging. Gas infrastructure, while expanding, cannot keep pace with short-term needs.

Enter renewables: solar and wind that are bridging the gap. In 2023, utility-scale solar’s levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) averaged $49/MWh globally, and onshore wind hit $33/MWh (IRENA), often undercutting gas in certain US markets ($40-80/MWh, Lazard 2024). Meanwhile, emerging technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs) remain years from deployment due to regulatory and cost hurdles.

The US approach is pragmatic, not dismissive of renewables. Gas provides a cost-effective baseline, but renewables are essential to meet rising demand and replace retiring capacity.

3. National agendas vs. Energy transition > China: playing the long game, strategic push for energy independence and global leadership

China’s energy strategy contrasts sharply with the US. China imports significant portions of its fossil fuels. In 2023, approximately 70% of its crude oil consumption (11.1 million barrels per day out of 15.4 million b/d total demand) and 42% of its natural gas consumption (16.2 billion cubic feet per day out of 38.5 Bcf/d) came from abroad, based on data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and China’s General Administration of Customs. Given this reliance, and associated risk, China is accelerating its renewable rollout to secure energy independence.

In 2024, it added 277 GW of solar capacity—a 45% increase from 2023—bringing its total to 887 GW, according to China’s National Energy Administration (NEA). China’s 277 GW of solar in 2024 isn’t just a national milestone—it’s a global game-changer, representing over 60% of the world’s new solar capacity. When paired with 80 GW of wind, 14 GW of hydro, 35 GW of thermal, and 3 GW of nuclear, it added 419 GW total, with renewables dominating at 88.5%. No other country comes close to this scale. The U.S. and Europe combined added less than half of China’s solar alone.

Beyond security, China’s growing “green” has a merit in itself projecting China to achieve global technological and cost leadership in various domains. China’s solar LCOE hit $31/MWh, 40-70% below Asia-Pacific peers (Wood Mackenzie), with China supplying over 80% of solar panels worldwide. By 2030, it could provide 50-60% of EVs, 70-80% of BESS, and 40% of wind turbines at a global scale. This positions China as the world’s green tech supplier, reshaping economics and geopolitics.

4. National agendas vs. Energy transition > Europe: ambition meets reality

Europe faces a more complex landscape. Without access to affordable, secure fossil fuels – Russia’s gas is unreliable, and US LNG is costly – renewables are a necessity. Yet, its deployment lags behind its potential due to structural barriers: permitting delays, grid constraints, and elevated financing costs.

Europe’s retail prices (€289/MWh) are significantly higher than the US’s retail ($176/MWh), and wholesale prices (€50-100/MWh vs. US $30-60/MWh) reflect a cost disparity, driven by Europe’s reliance on energy imports and higher taxes. These have far-reaching impacts in curtailing European industrial competitiveness and cost-of-living.

This has fueled a narrative blaming renewables for high costs, but the real culprits are under-investment in grids and poor planning. Renewables aren’t failing Europe—its infrastructure is. Europe must follow tight with its path towards renewables whilst navigating the full context:

Faster Permitting: Streamline approvals for renewable projects, following Germany’s lead in reducing red tape for wind projects;
Grid Upgrades: Increase annual grid investments by 40-70% (McKinsey) to support renewable integration;
Supply Chain Resilience: Scale up EU manufacturing for clean technologies (e.g., solar modules) to reduce 70% import dependency on China and address raw material shortages.
Clean Flexibility: Develop storage and demand response to balance variable renewable supply, as renewables already account for 47% of EU electricity (Ember 2025).
Affordability Support: Use subsidies and tax credits to make clean technologies accessible, protecting consumers from price volatility.

Solar, wind, and batteries offer compelling benefits vs. other generation sources

– Emissions Reduction: They deliver swift CO2 cuts

– Speed: A solar farm can be built in 6-12 months, versus 3-5 years for a gas plant. Global additions hit 1,000 GW in 2024—593 GW solar, 425 GW wind—outpacing gas (150 GW) and nuclear (5 GW) (IEA)

– Cost: Solar’s global LCOE fell to $49/MWh and wind to $33/MWh in 2023 (IRENA), often cheaper than coal ($60-100/MWh) and gas ($40-80/MWh) (Lazard 2024)

Their application varies by region:

– US: Complements cheap gas to meet demand.

– China: Drives energy security and global influence.

– Europe: Essential to its future independence and competitiveness but limited by infra and “speed” of deployment

Solar and wind—incl. offshore wind, with its immense potential—are central to this shift, but bottlenecks like grid delays and misinformation must be tackled. The goal isn’t to crown a single energy source but to craft balanced, practical strategies that leverage each region’s strengths.