At COP29, Brazil published a new Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement, increasing its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target for 2035 from 59% to 67% with respect to 2005 emission levels. Brazil recently published a new climate plan for public consultation, the Plano Clima Mitigação Estratégia Nacional, a mitigation and adaptation strategy defining key policies and sector-specific targets for the next 10 years (to 2035). The near-term climate mitigation strategies in the climate plan are focused on land use and deforestation, the country’s largest sources of emissions, while guidelines for decarbonizing transportation remain vague. The document establishes sectoral emission targets, with 2035 emission levels for the transportation sector allowed to range from 8% lower to 16% higher than 2022 levels. The cities sector, which includes urban mobility, has 2035 emission targets ranging from 18% to 45% lower than 2022 levels. The mitigation plans highlight electric vehicles (EVs) and biofuels as central to decarbonizing transportation but do not include clear electrification targets or guidelines on how to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. 

This is despite the fact that the transportation sector in Brazil was responsible for 10% of the country’s emissions in 2023, of which 92% were from the road transportation sector, primarily from trucks (45%) and private cars (34%). Brazil’s vehicle market is unique due to the large presence of flex-fuel vehicles. These cars can be fueled with 100% ethanol or gasoline, or any blend of these fuels, and now comprise about 80% of Brazil’s circulating light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet. Additionally, the Green Mobility and Innovation (MOVER) Program—Brazil’s binding carbon dioxide emission standards for automakers—has set an LDV emissions reduction target for 2027 of only 3% relative to 2025, which will require little additional effort from automakers. The first heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) targets under MOVER will be announced in 2029, with a compliance date of 2033. The Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy defines what economic activities the government considers sustainable to guide investments. It identifies both zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and biofuels as important for the country’s low-carbon transition, fostering the adoption of ZEVs and classifying fleets using 100% biofuels as sustainable. 

In this context of multiple decarbonization approaches for the Brazilian road transportation sector, this research brief “Toward net-zero mobility: Evaluating scenarios for road transport decarbonization in Brazil” published by the International Council on Clean Transportation seeks to determine the most effective pathway for mitigating road transport GHG emissions in Brazil. It examines alternative scenarios for the evolution of road transportation GHG emissions in Brazil between 2025 and 2050. It compares the performance of scenarios relying mostly on increased adoption of zero-emission vehicles (BEVs and fuel-cell electric vehicles [FCEVs]) with a more mixed transition based on increasing biofuels use and the penetration of different powertrains, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) fueled by compressed natural gas.

Access the brief here