The Trump Administration has taken multiple steps to firmly entrench changes to federal energy, trade and industrial policy. These changes have had a significant impact on the outlook for US energy markets. The US federal government has aggressively moved away from the previous subsidy-led model that stimulated private sector development of renewable energy generation assets.
The recent passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” along with other recent Presidential Executive Orders, have narrowed, amended and repealed tax credits and other supportive policies for new solar and wind development. This represents a significant shift in policy for renewable energy developers and has a potentially significant impact on the supply of energy in the US.
This paper by the Amber Infrastructure Group highlights that the first half of 2025 has seen significant and widespread changes made to federal energy policy and incentives available to the development of new wind and solar resources, which will cause a meaningful reduction in installations over at least the next decade and create heightened uncertainty for new development activity for some time to come.
As per the paper, while this creates a challenging outlook for development and construction of new solar assets, in contrast it does result in a potentially improved outlook for existing, operational solar assets which stand to benefit from increasing power price forecasts resulting from expected increases in the cost of new capacity additions, regardless of fuel type, and strong demand from data center growth and other electrification initiatives.
Access the paper here
