China has been pioneering the rooftop solar revolution. The country possesses a technical solar potential of 2,070 GW. The cumulative solar installations in China had reached 609 GW by the end of 2023. Japan has been a consistent performer in rooftop solar deployment. The country has consistently led in distributed solar deployment, with a 39 per cent contribution to the total installed renewable capacity as of April 2024.
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South Korea aims to achieve 14.3 GW of OSW capacity by 2030, contributing to its broader net-zero emissions goal by 2050. Overall, grid integration is crucial to facilitate the country’s energy transition. South Korea’s sole transmission and distribution grid operator, Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), is expanding its network across the country, particularly along the western coast, to accommodate the increasing demand.
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India’s EV charging infrastructure is growing rapidly, driven by the growing uptake of EVs. As of February 2024, there were approximately 12,146 public charging stations (PCSs) in the country. The top three states in terms of charging infrastructure are Maharashtra (3,079), Delhi (1,886) and Karnataka (1,041). The public EV charging network in the country is growing with an increase in the deployment of both slow and fast EV chargers.
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The Philippines aims to significantly shift its energy mix towards RES, which will dominate the installed capacity, supported by natural gas and BESS. Coal will see no additional capacity beyond the 2,305 MW planned from 2023 to 2028, natural gas capacity will substantially increase and oil capacity will remain largely unchanged. RES will see the most growth, with an addition of 13,791 MW by 2028 and an additional 84,712 MW by 2050.
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South Korea’s renewable electricity — which includes wind, solar, conventional hydropower, and other sources— accounted for a mere 9.64% of the power generation mix in 2023, falling far short of the world (30.25%) and Asia (26.73%) averages. Meanwhile, the share of wind and solar generation was just 5.3% in 2023. Even with the inclusion of nuclear power generation, South Korea’s share of clean electricity (40.32%) falls short of the OECD average (49.96%).
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Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest producer of coal and Southeast Asia’s largest gas supplier, has a strong connection to fossil fuels. However, the country’s population is increasingly supportive of climate goals, and the challenge for Indonesian policymakers lies in balancing the need for economic development, energy security, increased access to energy and affordability with the growing demand for a shift towards renewable energy sources (RES). The country’s reliance on fossil fuels and its abundant coal resources could prolong the use of existing infrastructure, complicating the energy transition.
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Vietnam is a new offshore wind (OFW) market that has world-class wind resources, a long coastline, and strong fundamentals for growth which could make offshore wind a significant component of its future energy mix. The national Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8) targets 6 GW of offshore wind installations, projected to contribute approximately 4% to the total installed capacity. Philippines has emerged as a pivotal player in the offshore wind (OFW) industry, propelled by progressive policies streamlining permits, encouraging foreign participation, and the introduction of a marine spatial tool (MSP). The Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) aims for a 35% share of renewables in the power mix by 2030 and 50% by 2040.
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The manufacturing capacity of factories worldwide tripled from 2021 to 2023, and is set to reach 1,100 GW per year by the end of 2024. About 80-85% of manufacturing capacity is based in China, which is also the clear market leader in upstream parts of the supply chain. However, forecasts for deployment this decade suggest that more than half of this manufacturing capacity will lie unused, with neither government targets nor project pipelines running at a commensurate scale.
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The EV market in South Asia is poised for substantial growth, driven by environmental imperatives, economic factors, and proactive government policies. Each country in the region presents unique opportunities and challenges, reflecting their specific economic conditions, infrastructure development, and market dynamics. Despite the challenges of infrastructure development, high initial costs, and the need for consumer education, the potential for growth in the EV market across South Asia is immense. With continued investment, supportive policies, and technological advancements, the region is well on its way to a sustainable and electric future.
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China will peak coal-use in 2023. CEF forecasts that China can peak then plateau in coal use over the six years to 2030, followed by a slow continued decline of 2% p.a. in coal use in absolute terms in China from 2030-2040, giving a 20% decline over the next decade. China’s electricity market is at the forefront of a transformative journey from traditional thermal power generation to robust expansion of renewable energy installations. China’s shift towards greener energy sources holds immense significance not only domestically but also in the global energy transition landscape.
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China is also the global leader in terms of electric share of the 2/3W fleet, with over one-third of all 2/3Ws being electric today, and is expected to remain the leader in electric 2/3W sales in both the STEPS and APS. In the STEPS, the sales share of electric 2/3Ws reaches nearly 90% in 2035; in the APS, the share is slightly above that by 2035. In China there is no gap between existing policy frameworks and future targets, and even more ambition is conceivable.
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The US currently has the makings of a strong solar manufacturing supply chain, but increased support is critical to regain solar manufacturing competitiveness. Filling these support gaps is possible, and in doing so, the US can improve its energy security and market leadership as the world increasingly looks to solar PV technology to generate low cost electricity in the face of the continuing climate crisis. Strong, consistent, and unwavering policy support for domestic solar manufacturing can lay the foundation to make the US, the nation that invented solar modules, a leader in modern solar energy manufacturing.
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South Korea’s energy security policies and business strategies have been misconstrued to focus on securing fossil fuels for power supply stability and affordability. South Korea’s transition away from fossil fuels has been slow, despite ambitious targets set in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce fossil fuel use in the power sector to 23.7% and increase renewable energy to 30.6% by 2036. In 2023, fossil fuels still accounted for 58.5% of the power mix, while renewable energy contributed only 9.64%.
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To address the challenge of emissions reduction, Indonesia is actively deliberating a forthcoming power development plan. Malaysia has initiated its first Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM). Renewable energy (including hydro power generation) holds a 22% share in the Philippines. The Thai government targets 30% of its EV production by 2025 to counter declining fossil fuel excise tax revenues. Vietnam’s eagerly anticipated Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) is finally approved.
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ASEAN member states have set a collective renewable energy capacity target of 35% by 2025. Including all types of renewable power, the region is already close to meeting its goal by currently having 32% of its total capacity sourced from renewables. The region currently has 28 GW of large utility-scale solar and wind power in operation, accounting for 9% of total electrical capacity in the region. ASEAN would have to build 17 GW of utility-scale wind and solar capacity by 2025 to reach this goal.
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World leaders have been building momentum to triple global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, from a 2022 baseline. The proposed pledge puts renewable energy at the forefront of upcoming negotiations and aligns with BloombergNEF’s own analysis on a net-zero pathway. Achieving it will require global commitments to remove bottlenecks, particularly those affecting wind and power grids, that differ by country.
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Japan’s electricity sector is undergoing a significant transformation, primarily driven by the imperative to enhance interregional connections. The goal is to meet Japan’s carbon neutrality targets by 2050 under its Green Growth Strategy through the Achieving Carbon Neutrality initiative, which necessitates decarbonising the power generation base and increasing the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the nation’s generation mix.
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Renewable energy sources have been increasingly adopted for building a sustainable future in India’s energy landscape. This transformation took time to develop; it is the product of coordinated efforts by the government, business and scholars, besides regional and global cooperation. The country has taken significant strides in renewable energy development, especially over the past few years. India currently has 132 GW of installed renewable energy capacity, which is about 31 per cent of the country’s total power capacity as of October 2023.
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Sri Lanka has traditionally relied heavily on fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal to fulfil the majority of its energy and transportation needs. The transport sector in Sri Lanka, like in any other country, holds a significant position in the nation’s progress and advancement. Sri Lanka is taking initiatives in the field of EVs which are multi-faceted and forward-looking.
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Maldives is geographically blessed with abundance of renewable energy resources, including solar, wind, and ocean, as well as an ability to manufacture green hydrogen fuel. The country can also replace a portion of its diesel consumption with cheaper, more efficient and less polluting small-scale liquefied natural gas. As per IRENA’s Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023 report, total renewable energy capacity installed in Maldives as of 2022 was 37 MW.
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